<p>This paper addresses the problem of kernel density estimation for locally stationary processes, as defined by Dahlhaus [<CitationRef CitationID="CR7">7</CitationRef>]. We propose a recursive kernel density estimator based on a stochastic approximation algorithm, which enables dynamic adaptation to local changes in the data. The performance of the recursive estimator critically depends on the choice of the step size <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\((\gamma _T)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mi>γ</mi> <mi>T</mi> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and the bandwidth <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\((h_T)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mi>h</mi> <mi>T</mi> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, whose roles we rigorously analyze. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimator and establish its uniform convergence rates, along with an optimal selection of the bandwidth <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\((h_T)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mi>h</mi> <mi>T</mi> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> to achieve this convergence. To validate our theoretical results, we conduct simulation studies comparing the recursive and non-recursive estimators, demonstrating that, with appropriately chosen parameters, the Mean Squared Error of the recursive estimator can be lower than that of the standard non-recursive approach. Finally, we illustrate the practical performance of the proposed recursive estimator on a real dataset of daily temperature measurements, highlighting its ability to adapt to smooth temporal changes in the underlying distribution.</p>

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Kernel Density Methods for Locally Stationary Processes

  • Hamdi Fathallah,
  • Syrine Hlaoua,
  • Yousri Slaoui

摘要

This paper addresses the problem of kernel density estimation for locally stationary processes, as defined by Dahlhaus [7]. We propose a recursive kernel density estimator based on a stochastic approximation algorithm, which enables dynamic adaptation to local changes in the data. The performance of the recursive estimator critically depends on the choice of the step size \((\gamma _T)\) ( γ T ) and the bandwidth \((h_T)\) ( h T ) , whose roles we rigorously analyze. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimator and establish its uniform convergence rates, along with an optimal selection of the bandwidth \((h_T)\) ( h T ) to achieve this convergence. To validate our theoretical results, we conduct simulation studies comparing the recursive and non-recursive estimators, demonstrating that, with appropriately chosen parameters, the Mean Squared Error of the recursive estimator can be lower than that of the standard non-recursive approach. Finally, we illustrate the practical performance of the proposed recursive estimator on a real dataset of daily temperature measurements, highlighting its ability to adapt to smooth temporal changes in the underlying distribution.