<p>China faces a critical deficit in natural rubber self-sufficiency, exposing the industry to considerable security risks. As smallholder natural rubber plantations represent a vital component of the sector, research on natural rubber farmers’ productive behaviour is crucial for stabilising the industry. A systematic literature review was conducted, entailing rigorous coding and analysis of selected publications. The review identified 173 distinct influencing factors across 328 reference points, culminating in the development of the Farmer-Production-Society-Market-Rubber-Psychology-Policy-Nature (3P-FMNRS) framework, which elucidates natural rubber farmers’ decision-making mechanisms. Four case studies in Yunnan and Hainan provinces demonstrated the framework’s robustness in capturing how these factors synergistically and interactively shaped behavioural outcomes. The 3P-FMNRS framework provides a foundation for future systematic and empirical research on natural rubber farmers’ productive behaviour and offers actionable insights for policymakers to design targeted strategies to secure strategic natural rubber resources.</p>