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<p>China's rubber industry faces a persistent supply–demand gap, relying heavily on imports. This study examines the factors affecting and forecasting natural and synthetic rubber production in China (1993–2024) using ARDL, NARDL, and Prophet models. NARDL results reveal significant asymmetric effects: synthetic rubber is particularly sensitive to short-run price fluctuations, while natural rubber exhibits long-run asymmetrically; —lagged price increases reduce output due to smallholder constraints, whereas lagged price declines stimulate production. Furthermore, the study finds that rainfall positively affects natural rubber production in the long run; synthetic rubber demonstrates short-run vulnerability to rainfall deficits. ARDL results suggest a complementary link between both rubber types. Forecasts generated by the Prophet model reveal cyclical trends for natural rubber, driven by environmental factors, and stable growth in synthetic rubber, supported by technology. Recommended policy interventions include price stabilisation, climate-resilient infrastructure, and industry collaboration. Ultimately, this study provides a framework for understanding agricultural production under complex market and environmental pressures.</p>

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Factors affecting and forecasting of natural and synthetic rubber production in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月5日

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  • Yu Song,
  • Kun-Yao Zheng,
  • Ghee-Thean Lim

摘要

China's rubber industry faces a persistent supply–demand gap, relying heavily on imports. This study examines the factors affecting and forecasting natural and synthetic rubber production in China (1993–2024) using ARDL, NARDL, and Prophet models. NARDL results reveal significant asymmetric effects: synthetic rubber is particularly sensitive to short-run price fluctuations, while natural rubber exhibits long-run asymmetrically; —lagged price increases reduce output due to smallholder constraints, whereas lagged price declines stimulate production. Furthermore, the study finds that rainfall positively affects natural rubber production in the long run; synthetic rubber demonstrates short-run vulnerability to rainfall deficits. ARDL results suggest a complementary link between both rubber types. Forecasts generated by the Prophet model reveal cyclical trends for natural rubber, driven by environmental factors, and stable growth in synthetic rubber, supported by technology. Recommended policy interventions include price stabilisation, climate-resilient infrastructure, and industry collaboration. Ultimately, this study provides a framework for understanding agricultural production under complex market and environmental pressures.