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<p>The profitability of panel caving operations hinges on strategic planning decisions, most notably the definition of the economic envelope and the draw sequence. Conventional planning frameworks typically assume static conditions and, as a result, fail to capture the complex interplay between draw strategies and gravity-flow within the draw column. This leads to significant overestimation of project value. We propose a robust assessment framework that quantifies how draw sequencing and undercut-level elevation affect project economics. The approach integrates an economic envelope optimizer, modified to incorporate predefined draw sequences, and a cellular-automata-based gravity-flow simulator that explicitly models dilution and material mixing. We perform a sensitivity analysis on undercut-level elevation to determine the optimal elevation under more realistic dynamic conditions. Across the evaluated case studies, static planning overstates Net Present Value (NPV); simulated NPV is 35–49% lower than theoretical estimates. Dilution further contracts the mineable footprint, reducing the number of active and profitable drawpoints by up to 26%. Moreover, the undercut-level elevation that maximizes the simulated NPV diverges from the theoretical optimum, with observed shifts of up to + 60&#xa0;m. Overall, the proposed framework reduces planning uncertainty and supports a more reliable assessment of project value and feasibility of caving projects.</p>

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Integrating Draw Sequence and Gravity-Flow Simulation to Optimize the Economic Envelope in Panel Caving Operations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月6日

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  • Josué Yevilao,
  • Gonzalo Nelis,
  • René Gómez,
  • Diego Oyarzo,
  • Asieh Hekmat

摘要

The profitability of panel caving operations hinges on strategic planning decisions, most notably the definition of the economic envelope and the draw sequence. Conventional planning frameworks typically assume static conditions and, as a result, fail to capture the complex interplay between draw strategies and gravity-flow within the draw column. This leads to significant overestimation of project value. We propose a robust assessment framework that quantifies how draw sequencing and undercut-level elevation affect project economics. The approach integrates an economic envelope optimizer, modified to incorporate predefined draw sequences, and a cellular-automata-based gravity-flow simulator that explicitly models dilution and material mixing. We perform a sensitivity analysis on undercut-level elevation to determine the optimal elevation under more realistic dynamic conditions. Across the evaluated case studies, static planning overstates Net Present Value (NPV); simulated NPV is 35–49% lower than theoretical estimates. Dilution further contracts the mineable footprint, reducing the number of active and profitable drawpoints by up to 26%. Moreover, the undercut-level elevation that maximizes the simulated NPV diverges from the theoretical optimum, with observed shifts of up to + 60 m. Overall, the proposed framework reduces planning uncertainty and supports a more reliable assessment of project value and feasibility of caving projects.