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<p>Molybdenum is indispensable for low-carbon technologies, yet its uneven geographical distribution creates systemic supply risks. This study constructs a global molybdenum trade network (M-GTN) and integrates cascading failure simulation with NI-Louvain community detection to analyze risk transmission pathways. The results identify four distinct network cores: China as a producer-consumer nexus (three-quarters of its trade volume consists of imports, creating unique vulnerability), the United States as a technology-driven processor, the Netherlands as an infrastructural hub, and Chile as a resource-dominant supplier. Simulations reveal that supply shocks propagate primarily through indirect channels—over 70% of economies are infected via multi-step pathways involving bridge nodes such as the Netherlands and China—with community structures amplifying transmission. Robustness tests confirm that model conclusions are sensitive to structured country-level heterogeneity but robust to random noise. These findings translate into differentiated policy instruments aligned with circular economy and sustainable development frameworks: for producer economies, strategic stockpile coordination and transparent pricing; for hub economies, early-warning systems and multimodal logistics investment; for all economies, recycling R&amp;D subsidies, material efficiency standards, and data transparency protocols. By linking network analysis to actionable sustainability strategies, this study provides a replicable framework for managing critical mineral supply risks.</p>

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Study on Risk Transmission Effects in the Global Trade Network of Molybdenum Resources Based on a Cascading Failure Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月27日

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  • Mengtao Song,
  • Ligang Xu,
  • Xiang Guo,
  • Weifeng Wang,
  • Junjie liang

摘要

Molybdenum is indispensable for low-carbon technologies, yet its uneven geographical distribution creates systemic supply risks. This study constructs a global molybdenum trade network (M-GTN) and integrates cascading failure simulation with NI-Louvain community detection to analyze risk transmission pathways. The results identify four distinct network cores: China as a producer-consumer nexus (three-quarters of its trade volume consists of imports, creating unique vulnerability), the United States as a technology-driven processor, the Netherlands as an infrastructural hub, and Chile as a resource-dominant supplier. Simulations reveal that supply shocks propagate primarily through indirect channels—over 70% of economies are infected via multi-step pathways involving bridge nodes such as the Netherlands and China—with community structures amplifying transmission. Robustness tests confirm that model conclusions are sensitive to structured country-level heterogeneity but robust to random noise. These findings translate into differentiated policy instruments aligned with circular economy and sustainable development frameworks: for producer economies, strategic stockpile coordination and transparent pricing; for hub economies, early-warning systems and multimodal logistics investment; for all economies, recycling R&D subsidies, material efficiency standards, and data transparency protocols. By linking network analysis to actionable sustainability strategies, this study provides a replicable framework for managing critical mineral supply risks.