Development of a Strategic Competition Index for Global Competition Analysis of Critical Minerals
摘要
The global transition toward electric vehicles and low-carbon technologies has intensified competition for critical minerals essential to lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), including lithium, cobalt, nickel, natural graphite, and manganese. While traditional frameworks such as the Competition Index (CI) provide a robust foundation for quantifying trade-based competition among countries, they place limited emphasis on key supply-side risks, such as geopolitical instability, regulatory constraints, social factors, and by-product dependence that critically influence strategic vulnerability. Although the CI effectively captures demand-driven dynamics, it treats supply-related risks as separate analytical dimensions, limiting its capacity to represent the full scope of supply-chain fragility. To address this limitation, this study introduces a Strategic Competition Index (SCI) that extends the CI framework by embedding a composite risk index directly into its structure. The risk index integrates production diversity, by-product dependence, and political and economic stability, thereby linking trade intensity with external risk exposure. Applying the SCI to five key LIB-related minerals using 2022 data reveals that cobalt and natural graphite exhibit the highest combined competition-risk intensity, primarily due to concentrated supply structures and heightened geopolitical sensitivity. Overall, the SCI offers a more comprehensive framework for assessing global mineral competition by bridging demand-side pressures with supply-side vulnerabilities. This integrated approach provides practical insights for policymakers, manufacturers, and stakeholders seeking to enhance supply chain resilience and ensure the long-term security of critical mineral resources.