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Background <p>Hong Kong’s total fertility rate (TFR) has collapsed to one of the world’s lowest (0.77 births per woman in 2021), reflecting broader demographic crises in high-income Asian societies. While economic constraints and delayed marriage are widely acknowledged, the interplay of marriage proportion (MP), marital fertility (MFR), and non-marital fertility (NMFR) remains underexplored. This study quantifies these drivers using decomposition analysis, contextualized through the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and the Capability Approach, to inform policy interventions.</p> Methods <p>We analyzed census data (1981–2021) from Hong Kong’s Census and Statistics Department, employing a decomposition model to partition TFR changes into MP, MFR, and NMFR. Age-specific fertility rates, marriage proportions, and policy timelines were integrated to assess structural and cultural influences.</p> Results <p>From 1981 to 2021, the TFR declined significantly, with a notable rebound between 2000 and 2015 attributed to improved marital fertility rates. However, a sharp decline resumed post-2016, influenced by falling marriage rates and decreasing marital fertility. The changes in marriage rate, marital fertility rate and nonmarital fertility rate contributed -69%, -14%, and -17%, respectively, to the changes in TFR during the period 1981-2021. These findings suggest that decreasing marriage rates are the primary driver of declining fertility in Hong Kong.</p> Discussion <p>Hong Kong’s fertility crisis highlights the complex interplay between cultural individualism and enduring structural constraints, as framed by the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and its conservative variant. Pronatalist policies have failed to reverse fertility decline because they inadequately address the dual drivers of declining marriage rates and subsequent reductions in marital fertility—both of which remain central components of the total fertility rate. This sequential fertility decline appears closely linked to unresolved socio-economic and cultural challenges, such as the limited number of births outside marriage, housing unaffordability, inflexible labor markets, and persistent gendered caregiving norms. Achieving sustainable fertility recovery therefore requires comprehensive structural reforms that address barriers to marriage and family formation and create a family-friendly social and working environment.</p>

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RETRACTED ARTICLE: Forty years of fertility transition in Hong Kong

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月1日

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  • Yiming Bai,
  • Paul Yip,
  • Billy Li,
  • K. P Wat,
  • Eddy Lam,
  • B. K So

摘要

Background

Hong Kong’s total fertility rate (TFR) has collapsed to one of the world’s lowest (0.77 births per woman in 2021), reflecting broader demographic crises in high-income Asian societies. While economic constraints and delayed marriage are widely acknowledged, the interplay of marriage proportion (MP), marital fertility (MFR), and non-marital fertility (NMFR) remains underexplored. This study quantifies these drivers using decomposition analysis, contextualized through the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and the Capability Approach, to inform policy interventions.

Methods

We analyzed census data (1981–2021) from Hong Kong’s Census and Statistics Department, employing a decomposition model to partition TFR changes into MP, MFR, and NMFR. Age-specific fertility rates, marriage proportions, and policy timelines were integrated to assess structural and cultural influences.

Results

From 1981 to 2021, the TFR declined significantly, with a notable rebound between 2000 and 2015 attributed to improved marital fertility rates. However, a sharp decline resumed post-2016, influenced by falling marriage rates and decreasing marital fertility. The changes in marriage rate, marital fertility rate and nonmarital fertility rate contributed -69%, -14%, and -17%, respectively, to the changes in TFR during the period 1981-2021. These findings suggest that decreasing marriage rates are the primary driver of declining fertility in Hong Kong.

Discussion

Hong Kong’s fertility crisis highlights the complex interplay between cultural individualism and enduring structural constraints, as framed by the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and its conservative variant. Pronatalist policies have failed to reverse fertility decline because they inadequately address the dual drivers of declining marriage rates and subsequent reductions in marital fertility—both of which remain central components of the total fertility rate. This sequential fertility decline appears closely linked to unresolved socio-economic and cultural challenges, such as the limited number of births outside marriage, housing unaffordability, inflexible labor markets, and persistent gendered caregiving norms. Achieving sustainable fertility recovery therefore requires comprehensive structural reforms that address barriers to marriage and family formation and create a family-friendly social and working environment.