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<p>This article adopts a cohort analysis perspective to reconstruct the first marriage trajectories of Chinese urban and rural female birth cohorts using data from the Seventh National Population Census. Employing Lexis surfaces to analyze the age-period-cohort effects of first marriages, the study finds that hazard rates for early-age first marriages have continued to decline since the Sixth National Population Census, age distributions have become more dispersed, and peak-age marriage rates have further decreased. These shifts are occurring more rapidly among rural women, for whom the change starts later. Using three parametric models of first marriage age schedules, the study predicts that the proportion of never-married women in cohorts born after 1980 will increase more rapidly, reaching 4.6-9.0% for the 1990 cohort. The proportions of never-marrying are higher among urban women, expected to reach 4.5-13.8%. The proportion of never-marrying in rural areas is rising rapidly in the post-1985 cohorts due to greater heterogeneity and weakening social pressure, and are expected to surpass those of town women. The trend of later cohorts marrying later and not marrying is difficult to reverse and will profoundly affect fertility rates, marriage markets, and family structures.</p>

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Age schedules of first marriage of Chinese females

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • Ting Feng

摘要

This article adopts a cohort analysis perspective to reconstruct the first marriage trajectories of Chinese urban and rural female birth cohorts using data from the Seventh National Population Census. Employing Lexis surfaces to analyze the age-period-cohort effects of first marriages, the study finds that hazard rates for early-age first marriages have continued to decline since the Sixth National Population Census, age distributions have become more dispersed, and peak-age marriage rates have further decreased. These shifts are occurring more rapidly among rural women, for whom the change starts later. Using three parametric models of first marriage age schedules, the study predicts that the proportion of never-married women in cohorts born after 1980 will increase more rapidly, reaching 4.6-9.0% for the 1990 cohort. The proportions of never-marrying are higher among urban women, expected to reach 4.5-13.8%. The proportion of never-marrying in rural areas is rising rapidly in the post-1985 cohorts due to greater heterogeneity and weakening social pressure, and are expected to surpass those of town women. The trend of later cohorts marrying later and not marrying is difficult to reverse and will profoundly affect fertility rates, marriage markets, and family structures.