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<p>India is the world’s most populous country, with one of the fastest-aging populations. The impact of population aging on economic growth has not been conclusively established in the existing global literature. Global evidence suggests that population aging, and consequently a longevity society, will be the future norm as the share of older adults is projected to rise. However, older adults, who are largely in the economically inactive age group, raise concerns for economic growth. India, which is currently undergoing a potential demographic window of opportunity and is also projected to face rapid aging—along with relatively higher economic dependency, poor social security, and fewer years of the good life—deserves special attention. Using a micro-simulation analysis through the Spectrum program (V 6.29), this study explores the prospects of India’s longevity economy from 1991 to 2050. We consider four different assumed scenarios of life expectancy as proxies for different longevity and aging trajectories and estimate their potential economic impact while keeping other factors constant. The findings suggest that although the country’s economic growth is projected to continue positively across all assumed scenarios, the size of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth may significantly decrease in higher-aging scenarios if current levels of employment, education, and health conditions remain unchanged. Specifically, for life expectancies up to 8&#xa0;years higher than the usual trajectory, the growth rate in GDP per capita can shrink by a range of&#xa0;2.3% under scenario 1&#xa0;to&#xa0;10.4% under scenario 3 by the middle of this century, in the absence of extended working life spans and active, healthy aging.</p>

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Economic impact of population aging in India, 1991–2050: evidence based on micro-simulation modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月16日

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  • Kaustav Chakraborty,
  • Srinivas Goli

摘要

India is the world’s most populous country, with one of the fastest-aging populations. The impact of population aging on economic growth has not been conclusively established in the existing global literature. Global evidence suggests that population aging, and consequently a longevity society, will be the future norm as the share of older adults is projected to rise. However, older adults, who are largely in the economically inactive age group, raise concerns for economic growth. India, which is currently undergoing a potential demographic window of opportunity and is also projected to face rapid aging—along with relatively higher economic dependency, poor social security, and fewer years of the good life—deserves special attention. Using a micro-simulation analysis through the Spectrum program (V 6.29), this study explores the prospects of India’s longevity economy from 1991 to 2050. We consider four different assumed scenarios of life expectancy as proxies for different longevity and aging trajectories and estimate their potential economic impact while keeping other factors constant. The findings suggest that although the country’s economic growth is projected to continue positively across all assumed scenarios, the size of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth may significantly decrease in higher-aging scenarios if current levels of employment, education, and health conditions remain unchanged. Specifically, for life expectancies up to 8 years higher than the usual trajectory, the growth rate in GDP per capita can shrink by a range of 2.3% under scenario 1 to 10.4% under scenario 3 by the middle of this century, in the absence of extended working life spans and active, healthy aging.