<p>The iron and steel industry plays a crucial role in advancing green and low-carbon development. It is essential to scientifically and reasonably forecast the industry’s future crude steel demand, scrap steel resources, and carbon dioxide emissions, as well as to analyze the industry’s future trends in ferrous resource composition, production process structure, and energy consumption patterns, in order to identify effective pathways for the sector’s decarbonization. A dual carbon analysis model for China’s iron and steel industry was constructed, and three development scenarios were established. The model introduced economic parameters, adopted multiple theoretical methods, and incorporated five major low-carbon measures to explore the pathways of low-carbon transformation of the industry. The results indicated that with the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, China’s iron and steel industry will exhibit a declining trend, with crude steel demand decreasing to between 620 and 750 Mt by 2060. Due to increasing steel stockpiles in society, scrap steel resources will experience two rapid increase stages, reaching a peak around 2043 at approximately 580 Mt. The application of various low-carbon measures will lead to a steady decline in CO₂ emissions, with remaining emissions expected to be about 120–220 Mt by 2060. Concurrently, the main ferrous resource will transform from iron ore to scrap steel, with electric arc furnace steelmaking route expected to replace conventional blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace route as the main steel production process, and the energy consumption patterns will shift from coal to electricity and hydrogen.</p>