Effect of climate change on energy security in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of renewable energy adoption
摘要
Variations in environmental and climatic conditions pose a threat to the stability of energy systems worldwide. Changes in rainfall patterns and temperature have heightened concerns about energy reliability and sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region heavily reliant on climate-sensitive energy sources despite its vast renewable energy potential. However, the mechanisms linking climate variability to energy security have not been extensively explored. Limited empirical evidence exists on how renewable energy adoption moderates the relationship between climate change and energy security. This study, therefore, examined the effects of climate change on energy security in Sub-Saharan Africa and investigated whether the adoption of renewable energy moderates this relationship. Balanced panel data for 20 countries covering the period 2000–2022 were analyzed using the Panel-Corrected Standard Errors regression technique to account for heteroskedasticity and cross-sectional dependence. The findings revealed that climate change exerts a significant negative effect on energy security, while renewable energy adoption enhances energy security and significantly moderates the impact of climate change on energy security. Marginal analysis further indicated that when renewable energy adoption levels exceed the threshold value, the adverse effect of climate change becomes neutral or positive. This implies that increasing renewable energy adoption diminishes, and eventually reverses, the negative impact of climate change on energy security. The study concludes that climate change may have a positive impact on energy security in regions where there are high levels of renewable energy adoption. The study recommends prioritizing renewable energy expansion, strengthening institutional frameworks, and promoting low-carbon investments to enhance energy security across the region.