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<p>Climatic variability threatens crop production in arid and semi-arid regions. This study evaluates the impacts of climatic variability and large-scale teleconnections on Rice and Wheat crops production. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data (1994–2023) was used to monitor Crop phenology, precipitation from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and temperature from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis-5 (ERA5) were used in Random Forest Regression (RFR) model, bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical (1994–2014) and future (2021–2100) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used to assess projected crop production and teleconnections indices were correlated with crop production. Maximum Rice and Wheat crop cultivated area was 350,000 and 460,000 hectares for Gujranwala and Bahawalnagar respectively. Minimum RMSE was 0.10 and 0.09 hectares for Rice and Wheat crops respectively with CC value of 0.76. Maximum production of Rice and Wheat crops was observed in Gujranwala and Bahawalnagar districts as 650,000 and 1,550,000 (tonnes) with CD of 0.81 and 0.84 respectively using RFR model from 2021 to 2100. The SSP5-8.5 in the period of 2081–2100 showed high temperature (~ 29&#xa0;°C) from 2081 to 2100 in South Punjab and Upper Sindh regions while high precipitation (~ 135&#xa0;mm/month) in Central Punjab region. The significant influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was observed with the Rice and Wheat crops production in all three regions. Linking teleconnection driven climate anomalies with crop production supports improved agriculture management and climate adaptation strategies in Pakistan.</p>

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Assessing Climate Impacts on Rice and Wheat Production using Satellite Imagery, CMIP6 Models, and Teleconnections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月12日

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  • Mohammad Izhar Hussain,
  • Muhammad Farooq Iqbal

摘要

Climatic variability threatens crop production in arid and semi-arid regions. This study evaluates the impacts of climatic variability and large-scale teleconnections on Rice and Wheat crops production. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data (1994–2023) was used to monitor Crop phenology, precipitation from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and temperature from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis-5 (ERA5) were used in Random Forest Regression (RFR) model, bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical (1994–2014) and future (2021–2100) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used to assess projected crop production and teleconnections indices were correlated with crop production. Maximum Rice and Wheat crop cultivated area was 350,000 and 460,000 hectares for Gujranwala and Bahawalnagar respectively. Minimum RMSE was 0.10 and 0.09 hectares for Rice and Wheat crops respectively with CC value of 0.76. Maximum production of Rice and Wheat crops was observed in Gujranwala and Bahawalnagar districts as 650,000 and 1,550,000 (tonnes) with CD of 0.81 and 0.84 respectively using RFR model from 2021 to 2100. The SSP5-8.5 in the period of 2081–2100 showed high temperature (~ 29 °C) from 2081 to 2100 in South Punjab and Upper Sindh regions while high precipitation (~ 135 mm/month) in Central Punjab region. The significant influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was observed with the Rice and Wheat crops production in all three regions. Linking teleconnection driven climate anomalies with crop production supports improved agriculture management and climate adaptation strategies in Pakistan.