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<p>Rice (<i>Oryza sativa</i> L.) production in Iran is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, which alters key environmental factors essential for crop growth and yield. This study evaluated the impacts of future climate scenarios on rice cultivation using the SSM-iCrop2 model under SSP245 and SSP585, and examined the effectiveness of altering planting dates as an adaptation strategy. Model projections indicate that minimum temperatures during the growing season are expected to rise by 25–36% in several provinces, disrupting rice phenology and leading to yield reductions exceeding 6% in Kermanshah and South Khorasan. Conversely, provinces such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Sistan and Baluchestan may experience yield increases of over 20% due to favorable combinations of temperature and solar radiation. Under the SSP585 scenario, some regions are projected to experience reductions in intercepted solar radiation by up to 25%, which could exacerbate yield losses. Adjusting planting dates was identified as an effective adaptation measure. Early planting in Golestan Province increased yields by up to 20%, while delayed planting in Yazd and Ardabil also improved outcomes, demonstrating that flexible, region-specific management can mitigate climate-induced stress. These results emphasize that the magnitude and timing of climate impacts vary geographically, highlighting the importance of localized adaptation strategies. Overall, this study underscores that dynamic management practices, including optimizing planting dates, can enhance the resilience of rice production under changing climatic conditions. By providing region-specific insights into the interactions between temperature, radiation, and crop phenology, these findings inform targeted agricultural policies and adaptation strategies to safeguard rice productivity and food security in Iran.</p>

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Adapting Rice Production to Climate Change in Iran: Mitigating Yield Losses through Strategic Planting Date Adjustments

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月8日

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  • Mohammad Heidari,
  • Saeideh Maleki Farahani,
  • Benjamin Torabi

摘要

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in Iran is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, which alters key environmental factors essential for crop growth and yield. This study evaluated the impacts of future climate scenarios on rice cultivation using the SSM-iCrop2 model under SSP245 and SSP585, and examined the effectiveness of altering planting dates as an adaptation strategy. Model projections indicate that minimum temperatures during the growing season are expected to rise by 25–36% in several provinces, disrupting rice phenology and leading to yield reductions exceeding 6% in Kermanshah and South Khorasan. Conversely, provinces such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Sistan and Baluchestan may experience yield increases of over 20% due to favorable combinations of temperature and solar radiation. Under the SSP585 scenario, some regions are projected to experience reductions in intercepted solar radiation by up to 25%, which could exacerbate yield losses. Adjusting planting dates was identified as an effective adaptation measure. Early planting in Golestan Province increased yields by up to 20%, while delayed planting in Yazd and Ardabil also improved outcomes, demonstrating that flexible, region-specific management can mitigate climate-induced stress. These results emphasize that the magnitude and timing of climate impacts vary geographically, highlighting the importance of localized adaptation strategies. Overall, this study underscores that dynamic management practices, including optimizing planting dates, can enhance the resilience of rice production under changing climatic conditions. By providing region-specific insights into the interactions between temperature, radiation, and crop phenology, these findings inform targeted agricultural policies and adaptation strategies to safeguard rice productivity and food security in Iran.