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<p>Using a panel survey of Baltimore families, I show how parents and students revise their expectations of occupational wages and education over a 12-year period. Girls and parents of girls predict higher subjective returns to education than boys and their parents, especially in the case of white girls. Only girls’ subjective returns to education are close to those observed in the Baltimore labor market. I show that families’ expectations are statistically associated with adult decisions, such as college applications, completion of post-secondary studies, marriage relationships, and health behavior. I then analyze counterfactual policies that increase the educational expectations of either parents, students, or both. These policies show powerful impacts on adult education, earnings, and health. A policy that increases both parents’ and students’ expectations by 1 year would increase annual adult earnings by 9.7% and the completion of post-secondary studies by 9.8% of the sample. A change only of parents’ educational expectations would increase earnings by 6.8% and the completion of post-secondary studies by 4.9%. A change only of students’ educational expectations would only increase earnings by 2.9% and the completion of post-secondary studies by 4%. Therefore, policies aimed at changing expectations should also target the parents to be more effective.</p>

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How Do Disadvantaged Children and Parents Form Expectations of Their Adult Education and Occupations? Evidence from Baltimore

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月19日

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  • Carlos Madeira

摘要

Using a panel survey of Baltimore families, I show how parents and students revise their expectations of occupational wages and education over a 12-year period. Girls and parents of girls predict higher subjective returns to education than boys and their parents, especially in the case of white girls. Only girls’ subjective returns to education are close to those observed in the Baltimore labor market. I show that families’ expectations are statistically associated with adult decisions, such as college applications, completion of post-secondary studies, marriage relationships, and health behavior. I then analyze counterfactual policies that increase the educational expectations of either parents, students, or both. These policies show powerful impacts on adult education, earnings, and health. A policy that increases both parents’ and students’ expectations by 1 year would increase annual adult earnings by 9.7% and the completion of post-secondary studies by 9.8% of the sample. A change only of parents’ educational expectations would increase earnings by 6.8% and the completion of post-secondary studies by 4.9%. A change only of students’ educational expectations would only increase earnings by 2.9% and the completion of post-secondary studies by 4%. Therefore, policies aimed at changing expectations should also target the parents to be more effective.