<p>Climate variability and an increase in rainfall extremes have now become major challenges to water resource management and agricultural sustainability in semi-arid regions. Kalyana Karnataka is a drought-prone area located in the northeastern part of the state of Karnataka. The region experiences significant climatic variability, which is mainly influenced by its semi-arid nature and irregular monsoon patterns. This study focuses on spatio temporal variability of rainfall and drought conditions prevailing over Kalyana Karnataka, by analyzing long-term rainfall data over the period 1980 to 2025. Annual rainfall statistics, Percentage rainfall deviation (%RD), and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to assess rainfall and drought conditions prevailing over seven districts of Kalyana Karnataka, namely Bidar, Kalaburagi, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal, Ballari, and Vijayanagara. Furthermore, Remote Sensing and GIS techniques have been used to examine the changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST) to understand the impacts of climatic variability. The findings reveal that rainfall varies significantly over space, with the range of rainfall from 504&#xa0;mm in Vijayanagara to 742&#xa0;mm in Kalaburagi. Most districts witnessed a range of 24 to 28 deficit rainfall years, emphasizing the recurrence of drought conditions in the region. Extreme deficit rainfall has been experienced in Bidar (-68.80% in 2002) and Vijayanagara (-60.51% in 2003), and extreme excess rainfall has been experienced in Bidar (+ 108.61% in 2024) and Yadgir (+ 102.45% in 2020). The SPI analysis also indicates that there are alternating periods of drought and wetness with some years being classified as moderate to severe drought (SPI ≤ − 1.0), while others are extreme wet (SPI ≥ 2.0). The research has found significant hydro-climatic variability as well as considerable regional climate vulnerability suggesting an important need for developing climate-resilient water management solutions, enhancing monitoring systems for drought, moisture conditions and planning for sustainable agriculture to help mitigate long-term climate risks.</p>

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Assessment of Rainfall Variability and Drought Intensification Over Kalyana Karnataka Region Using Geospatial Technologies and Drought Indices

  • Harishnaika N,
  • M. A. Mohammed Aslam,
  • Arpitha M,
  • S. A. Ahmed,
  • Mahesh Kondagadupula

摘要

Climate variability and an increase in rainfall extremes have now become major challenges to water resource management and agricultural sustainability in semi-arid regions. Kalyana Karnataka is a drought-prone area located in the northeastern part of the state of Karnataka. The region experiences significant climatic variability, which is mainly influenced by its semi-arid nature and irregular monsoon patterns. This study focuses on spatio temporal variability of rainfall and drought conditions prevailing over Kalyana Karnataka, by analyzing long-term rainfall data over the period 1980 to 2025. Annual rainfall statistics, Percentage rainfall deviation (%RD), and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to assess rainfall and drought conditions prevailing over seven districts of Kalyana Karnataka, namely Bidar, Kalaburagi, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal, Ballari, and Vijayanagara. Furthermore, Remote Sensing and GIS techniques have been used to examine the changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST) to understand the impacts of climatic variability. The findings reveal that rainfall varies significantly over space, with the range of rainfall from 504 mm in Vijayanagara to 742 mm in Kalaburagi. Most districts witnessed a range of 24 to 28 deficit rainfall years, emphasizing the recurrence of drought conditions in the region. Extreme deficit rainfall has been experienced in Bidar (-68.80% in 2002) and Vijayanagara (-60.51% in 2003), and extreme excess rainfall has been experienced in Bidar (+ 108.61% in 2024) and Yadgir (+ 102.45% in 2020). The SPI analysis also indicates that there are alternating periods of drought and wetness with some years being classified as moderate to severe drought (SPI ≤ − 1.0), while others are extreme wet (SPI ≥ 2.0). The research has found significant hydro-climatic variability as well as considerable regional climate vulnerability suggesting an important need for developing climate-resilient water management solutions, enhancing monitoring systems for drought, moisture conditions and planning for sustainable agriculture to help mitigate long-term climate risks.