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<p>Climate change is causing substantial changes in streamflow in river basins all over the world. This study employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future streamflow of the Periyar River basin in India. The SWAT performance was assessed through calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis using the SWAT-CUP in the SUFI-2 algorithm. In calibration and validation, the statistical performance indices (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.70, 0.70, NSE = 0.70, 0.68, PBIAS = 3.8, -9.7 and RSR = 0.55, 0.56) were found. Five bias-corrected future climate models, RCA4-CCCma-CanESM2, RCA4-CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, RCA4-ICHEC-EC-EARTH, RCA4-NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M, and REMO2009-MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, were used to simulate future streamflow for the periods of 2009–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Application of climate models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios showed that the maximum and minimum temperature would rise for near-century, mid-century, and end-century. Precipitation and streamflow would also increase in the near-century, mid-century, and end century. The increase in precipitation were observed to be in the range 3.84% to 23.02% under RCP 4.5 and 6.77% to 32.31% under RCP 8.5 for the three different timelines. Increase in precipitation leads to increased streamflow. The corresponding increase in streamflow for the three timelines were in the range 19.95% to 32.24% under RCP 4.5 and 26.84% to 49.91% under RCP 8.5. The increasing streamflow might aggravate flood problems in the basin area. These results are expected to help policymakers for formulating better water management practices to avoid future catastrophes in the basin.</p>

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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Streamflow of Periyar River Basin, India, Using SWAT Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月1日

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  • Litan Barman,
  • Ram Kailash Prasad,
  • Vijay P. Singh

摘要

Climate change is causing substantial changes in streamflow in river basins all over the world. This study employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future streamflow of the Periyar River basin in India. The SWAT performance was assessed through calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis using the SWAT-CUP in the SUFI-2 algorithm. In calibration and validation, the statistical performance indices (R2 = 0.70, 0.70, NSE = 0.70, 0.68, PBIAS = 3.8, -9.7 and RSR = 0.55, 0.56) were found. Five bias-corrected future climate models, RCA4-CCCma-CanESM2, RCA4-CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, RCA4-ICHEC-EC-EARTH, RCA4-NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M, and REMO2009-MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, were used to simulate future streamflow for the periods of 2009–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Application of climate models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios showed that the maximum and minimum temperature would rise for near-century, mid-century, and end-century. Precipitation and streamflow would also increase in the near-century, mid-century, and end century. The increase in precipitation were observed to be in the range 3.84% to 23.02% under RCP 4.5 and 6.77% to 32.31% under RCP 8.5 for the three different timelines. Increase in precipitation leads to increased streamflow. The corresponding increase in streamflow for the three timelines were in the range 19.95% to 32.24% under RCP 4.5 and 26.84% to 49.91% under RCP 8.5. The increasing streamflow might aggravate flood problems in the basin area. These results are expected to help policymakers for formulating better water management practices to avoid future catastrophes in the basin.