<p>Rainfall across the Indian subcontinent exhibits significant spatial and temporal variability, significantly impacting both natural ecosystems and socio-economic structures by influencing hydro-geological cycles. This study aims to investigate the influence of atmospheric sulphate aerosols on rainfall intensity in Central India. The research utilizes multi-satellite precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), along with data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM), covering the period from December 2003 to March 2023. Findings indicate that variables such as precipitable water vapour and the effective radius of cloud liquid water, derived from the MODIS (Aqua) level-3 atmospheric gridded product, exhibit a negative correlation with sulphate aerosol column mass density obtained from MERRA-2. Conversely, the effective radius of cloud ice demonstrates a positive correlation. The hygroscopic nature of sulphate aerosols facilitates cloud droplet formation, thereby potentially altering precipitation patterns. Increased aerosol loading enhances the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei, which results in smaller cloud droplet sizes but a higher number of droplets while keeping the liquid water path constant. A principal component analysis of the chosen variables identified six factors that collectively explain 94.87% of the dataset’s variance. Moreover, multi-parameter linear regression analysis, both incorporating and excluding sulphate aerosols, indicates that the model incorporating sulphate aerosols provides superior rainfall predictions up to the year 2027. Finally, predictions of future rainfall trends using the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Averages approach suggest a decline in rainfall patterns in the upcoming years.</p>

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Effect of Atmospheric Sulphate Aerosol on Precipitation over Central India: A Long-Term Evaluation Through Remote Sensing

  • Anirban Middey,
  • Alexander J. Panjikkaran

摘要

Rainfall across the Indian subcontinent exhibits significant spatial and temporal variability, significantly impacting both natural ecosystems and socio-economic structures by influencing hydro-geological cycles. This study aims to investigate the influence of atmospheric sulphate aerosols on rainfall intensity in Central India. The research utilizes multi-satellite precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), along with data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM), covering the period from December 2003 to March 2023. Findings indicate that variables such as precipitable water vapour and the effective radius of cloud liquid water, derived from the MODIS (Aqua) level-3 atmospheric gridded product, exhibit a negative correlation with sulphate aerosol column mass density obtained from MERRA-2. Conversely, the effective radius of cloud ice demonstrates a positive correlation. The hygroscopic nature of sulphate aerosols facilitates cloud droplet formation, thereby potentially altering precipitation patterns. Increased aerosol loading enhances the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei, which results in smaller cloud droplet sizes but a higher number of droplets while keeping the liquid water path constant. A principal component analysis of the chosen variables identified six factors that collectively explain 94.87% of the dataset’s variance. Moreover, multi-parameter linear regression analysis, both incorporating and excluding sulphate aerosols, indicates that the model incorporating sulphate aerosols provides superior rainfall predictions up to the year 2027. Finally, predictions of future rainfall trends using the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Averages approach suggest a decline in rainfall patterns in the upcoming years.