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<p>In 2011, a civil war broke out in Syria, causing significant impacts on land use and land cover (LULC). The multifaceted impacts of war on LULC dynamics are investigated by employing a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in this study. A comparison between simulated and observed LULC, along with an examination of LULC data in Syria and Jordan using the paired land use experimental method, is involved in our analysis. The feasibility of the PLUS model in studying war-induced changes in LULC is affirmed through cross-validation. Dynamic shifts during the early and middle stages of the conflict are revealed by our findings, being marked by a reduction in bare ground and an expansion of crop and tree areas. In the later stages, an increase in bare ground, a diminution of tree cover, and a slowdown in the expansion of crop areas were observed. Built-up areas were decreased both in the early and later stages of the war. Notably, diverse LULC trends emerged across different types of war zones. Insights into the evolving landscape of war-affected regions are contributed by this research, underscoring the effectiveness of simulation-based approaches in comprehending complex LULC transformations.</p>

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The Impacts of War on Land Use and Land Cover in Syria Based on Simulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月22日

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  • Qinping Liu,
  • Xuedan Zhang,
  • Hongzhen Tian,
  • Mengmeng Yang,
  • Zheng Zhang,
  • Huan Li

摘要

In 2011, a civil war broke out in Syria, causing significant impacts on land use and land cover (LULC). The multifaceted impacts of war on LULC dynamics are investigated by employing a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in this study. A comparison between simulated and observed LULC, along with an examination of LULC data in Syria and Jordan using the paired land use experimental method, is involved in our analysis. The feasibility of the PLUS model in studying war-induced changes in LULC is affirmed through cross-validation. Dynamic shifts during the early and middle stages of the conflict are revealed by our findings, being marked by a reduction in bare ground and an expansion of crop and tree areas. In the later stages, an increase in bare ground, a diminution of tree cover, and a slowdown in the expansion of crop areas were observed. Built-up areas were decreased both in the early and later stages of the war. Notably, diverse LULC trends emerged across different types of war zones. Insights into the evolving landscape of war-affected regions are contributed by this research, underscoring the effectiveness of simulation-based approaches in comprehending complex LULC transformations.