Improving the Spatiotemporal Forecasting of PM2.5 by Coupling a Deep Learning Method with a Chemical Transport Model: A Severe Haze Case in China
摘要
The chemical transport model (CTM) is often used for PM2.5 forecasting. However, due to the uncertainty sources in modelling processes such as meteorology, emissions, and chemical reactions, the PM2.5 forecasting of the CTM still has high uncertainty, especially during severe air pollution episodes with complex meteorological and chemical coupling. In this study, by using low-memory GPU, we developed a Model-Coupled Deep Learning method (MCDL method) by coupling a deep learning method with the CTM to improve the spatiotemporal forecasting of PM2.5 for 3 days in China during a severe haze episode. This method assimilates surface-observed PM2.5 into the CTM to produce an analysis field of PM2.5. Then, an encoder-decoder-based deep learning algorithm (ConvGRU) was used to predict the bias between the PM2.5 of the CTM and the analysis field, therefore improving the accuracy of the forecasting. The PM2.5 of the CTM and meteorological variables of the WRF model were added as auxiliary variables for training. The results suggest that the MCDL method can significantly improve the PM2.5 forecast of the CTM, where the root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by 24.5%. The MCDL method also performed better than the data-driven deep learning method with 20% lower RMSE. During this severe haze episode, the MCDL method effectively corrected the significant underestimation or overestimation of the CTM spatiotemporal forecast results and has better long-term spatiotemporal forecasting performance than the data-driven deep learning method. Besides, the MCDL method has the highest accuracy in forecasting pollution levels of PM2.5 when daily concentrations exceed 75 µg/m3.