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<p>This study examines trends and variability in maximum annual temperatures across 27 Brazilian capitals from 1960 to 2020, revealing significant temperature variations with Teresina experiencing the highest temperatures and São Paulo and Curitiba the lowest. Equatorial cities like Fortaleza and João Pessoa exhibit narrower temperature ranges, while Cuiabá shows broader fluctuations. Statistical analysis using Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen Slope (SS) tests indicates a significant increase in temperatures in 24 of the 27 capitals, with rates varying from 0.004&#xa0;°C per year in Aracaju to 0.027&#xa0;°C per year in Teresina. Pettitt's test identifies abrupt changes in 21 time series, particularly between 1989 and 1994. The study further explores maximum temperature modeling in Brazil using Gumbel (GUM) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability functions to understand extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and fires. It highlights the role of seasonality and the impact of anthropogenic factors like deforestation and poor environmental management on temperature variability and extremes. The influence of global climate change, especially the southern El Niño phenomenon (ENSO), on interannual temperature variability is also examined. Key findings underscore the effectiveness of Extreme Value Theory and probability distributions (GEV, GUM) in modeling and predicting extreme temperatures. Comparative analyses from other regions confirm the global trend of increasing extreme temperatures. The study emphasizes the need for practical adaptation strategies and climate policies to address the challenges posed by rising temperatures and climate change, with important implications for urban and agricultural resilience in Brazil.</p>

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Analyzing Maximum Temperature Trends and Extremes in Brazil: A Study of Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Influences from 1960 to 2020

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月27日

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  • Amaury de Souza,
  • Elias Silva de Medeiros,
  • José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior,
  • Vikram Kumar,
  • Sneha Gautam,
  • Aline Pessoa Bezerra

摘要

This study examines trends and variability in maximum annual temperatures across 27 Brazilian capitals from 1960 to 2020, revealing significant temperature variations with Teresina experiencing the highest temperatures and São Paulo and Curitiba the lowest. Equatorial cities like Fortaleza and João Pessoa exhibit narrower temperature ranges, while Cuiabá shows broader fluctuations. Statistical analysis using Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen Slope (SS) tests indicates a significant increase in temperatures in 24 of the 27 capitals, with rates varying from 0.004 °C per year in Aracaju to 0.027 °C per year in Teresina. Pettitt's test identifies abrupt changes in 21 time series, particularly between 1989 and 1994. The study further explores maximum temperature modeling in Brazil using Gumbel (GUM) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability functions to understand extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and fires. It highlights the role of seasonality and the impact of anthropogenic factors like deforestation and poor environmental management on temperature variability and extremes. The influence of global climate change, especially the southern El Niño phenomenon (ENSO), on interannual temperature variability is also examined. Key findings underscore the effectiveness of Extreme Value Theory and probability distributions (GEV, GUM) in modeling and predicting extreme temperatures. Comparative analyses from other regions confirm the global trend of increasing extreme temperatures. The study emphasizes the need for practical adaptation strategies and climate policies to address the challenges posed by rising temperatures and climate change, with important implications for urban and agricultural resilience in Brazil.