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<p>This study proposes a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and calibrated for Moroccan economy, explicitly incorporating climate shocks as an exogenous factor of macroeconomic disequilibrium. By mobilizing a set of empirical stylized facts covering the period 2000–2022, we represent extreme weather events as persistent negative shocks to total factor productivity (TFP). The model incorporates an extended Taylor rule, including a direct response by the central bank to climate shocks, in addition to its conventional objectives of stabilizing inflation and activity. Our results show that the climate shock generates negative and long-lasting effects on GDP, higher inflation, and a contraction in investment. These effects accentuate the monetary policy dilemma between price stability and activity support. These results underline the importance of integrating climate risk into macroeconomic analysis frameworks for vulnerable economies and justify the use of a monetary policy rule adapted to environmental constraints.</p>

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Climate shocks and economic resilience: a DSGE analysis of Morocco’s monetary policy adjustments

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • Hicham El Ouazzani,
  • Hicham Ouakil,
  • Ilma Sharif,
  • Abdelhamid Moustabchir,
  • Syed Tehseen Jawaid

摘要

This study proposes a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and calibrated for Moroccan economy, explicitly incorporating climate shocks as an exogenous factor of macroeconomic disequilibrium. By mobilizing a set of empirical stylized facts covering the period 2000–2022, we represent extreme weather events as persistent negative shocks to total factor productivity (TFP). The model incorporates an extended Taylor rule, including a direct response by the central bank to climate shocks, in addition to its conventional objectives of stabilizing inflation and activity. Our results show that the climate shock generates negative and long-lasting effects on GDP, higher inflation, and a contraction in investment. These effects accentuate the monetary policy dilemma between price stability and activity support. These results underline the importance of integrating climate risk into macroeconomic analysis frameworks for vulnerable economies and justify the use of a monetary policy rule adapted to environmental constraints.