<p>The West African cocoa belt, encompassing Ghana and Togo, accounts for approximately 65% of the global cocoa supply, serving as a critical economic backbone for farmers and nations. However, climate-related hazards, particularly drought, pose significant risks to its sustainability. This study assessed drought risk in the Ghana-Togo transboundary cocoa growing zone by integrating a multi-criteria decision analysis with projections from an ensemble mean of three (03) General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three climate scenarios: SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 in the mid-century (2050). Using spatial data of cocoa extent and vulnerability indicators, the study mapped future drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and the resulting risks. The results indicate a clear risk of drought by 2050, which is expected to intensify under future climate scenarios, particularly in the northern parts of the study area, while some regions may experience occasional wet conditions. Meanwhile, the overall cocoa extent is projected to decline by 5%, while the vulnerability of the cocoa production to drought is unevenly distributed across the study area. Risk levels are predominantly low to moderate (&gt; 90%), with a few high-risk zones (&lt; 10%) denoted, considering all climate scenarios. This result suggests continued cocoa viability under future climates. Nevertheless, adaptive measures are essential to protect and enhance the resilience of current cocoa-growing areas, particularly to address possible wet conditions and related diseases such as Black Pod. The study highlights context-specific and cost-effective adaptation options for improving the adaptive capacity of cocoa farming communities.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>Droughts often develop when below-average precipitation is followed by elevated evaporation caused by high temperatures, low humidity and decreased soil moisture, which affect cocoa production in West Africa, especially in Ghana and Togo. This situation negatively affects the cocoa yields and is expected to worsen in the future. It is therefore important to document the future drought risk and the potential effect on the cocoa production systems. Future Temperature and Precipitation data derived from three Global circulation models (under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) were used in conjunction with climate scenarios to assess the drought risk to cocoa production. The approach follows the IPCC guidelines with a multicriteria analysis. The study period is the mid-term century (2040–2060) centred on the year 2050. Results showed that Drought risk will intensify by 2050, mainly in northern areas; Cocoa extent is projected to decline by about 5%. Most zones show low to moderate drought risk across scenarios. However, specific adaptations are needed to sustain cocoa resilience in the study area.</p>