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<p>In a socio-environmental system, natural and human subsystems influence each other when an external trigger occurs, leading to abrupt or gradual changes. The assessment of regime shifts caused by floods in urban socio-environmental systems is conducted in Guwahati, India’s most urbanized city in Assam. Here, we examined regime shifts based on temporal and spatial patterns in the human and natural subsystems within city boundaries. The objectives of this study are: (1) to analyze regime shifts in natural subsystems using annual time series of hydrometeorological variables (precipitation, runoff, and temperature) and structural break regression models, such as penalized maximum likelihood with white-noise detection (including sensitivity analysis), and (2) to identify regime shifts in land use and population factors in human subsystems using spatial covariance techniques. The results show that precipitation and runoff data align well, with Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) values of 8.837 and 7.977, respectively. Regime shifts in rainfall are observed in 1947, 1954, 1987, 2003, and 2004, corresponding to pluvial flooding, while shifts in runoff are seen in 1988 and 1998, associated with fluvial flooding. In the human system, land-use and population shifts indicate a shift in 2003, based on covariance maps. It was determined that 2003 was the year when both regime shifts occurred in the human and natural subsystems. These findings reveal resilience during periods between shifts and highlight critical thresholds at which the system transitions between states. This study enhances understanding of regime shifts and resilience, which can assist policymakers in developing robust, adaptive infrastructure planning and governance strategies to better withstand future extreme events.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This study was conducted to identify regime shifts in urban socio-environmental systems in Northeast India, capturing pre- and post-flooding social and environmental conditions. It focuses on Guwahati, a city in the Indian state of Assam that experiences heavy flooding every year due to a combination of hydrometeorological and human factors. The research aims to analyze shifts in natural and complex socio-environmental systems, highlighting how they respond to the region’s human influences. A methodology was introduced that integrates structural break and spatial covariance matrix analyses. The results indicate significant changes in rainfall, runoff, land use, and population during the flood year.</p>

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Regime Shifts due to Multi-dimensional Flood Drivers in Urban Socio-environmental Systems in Northeast India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月18日

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  • Jagriti Jain,
  • Francisco Muñoz-Arriola,
  • Deepak Khare

摘要

In a socio-environmental system, natural and human subsystems influence each other when an external trigger occurs, leading to abrupt or gradual changes. The assessment of regime shifts caused by floods in urban socio-environmental systems is conducted in Guwahati, India’s most urbanized city in Assam. Here, we examined regime shifts based on temporal and spatial patterns in the human and natural subsystems within city boundaries. The objectives of this study are: (1) to analyze regime shifts in natural subsystems using annual time series of hydrometeorological variables (precipitation, runoff, and temperature) and structural break regression models, such as penalized maximum likelihood with white-noise detection (including sensitivity analysis), and (2) to identify regime shifts in land use and population factors in human subsystems using spatial covariance techniques. The results show that precipitation and runoff data align well, with Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) values of 8.837 and 7.977, respectively. Regime shifts in rainfall are observed in 1947, 1954, 1987, 2003, and 2004, corresponding to pluvial flooding, while shifts in runoff are seen in 1988 and 1998, associated with fluvial flooding. In the human system, land-use and population shifts indicate a shift in 2003, based on covariance maps. It was determined that 2003 was the year when both regime shifts occurred in the human and natural subsystems. These findings reveal resilience during periods between shifts and highlight critical thresholds at which the system transitions between states. This study enhances understanding of regime shifts and resilience, which can assist policymakers in developing robust, adaptive infrastructure planning and governance strategies to better withstand future extreme events.

Graphical Abstract

This study was conducted to identify regime shifts in urban socio-environmental systems in Northeast India, capturing pre- and post-flooding social and environmental conditions. It focuses on Guwahati, a city in the Indian state of Assam that experiences heavy flooding every year due to a combination of hydrometeorological and human factors. The research aims to analyze shifts in natural and complex socio-environmental systems, highlighting how they respond to the region’s human influences. A methodology was introduced that integrates structural break and spatial covariance matrix analyses. The results indicate significant changes in rainfall, runoff, land use, and population during the flood year.