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<p>Somalia possesses the longest coastline on the African mainland, making its fishery sector a critical pillar for national food security and economic resilience in an arid region where terrestrial agriculture is often limited. However, this vital sector faces compounding threats from climatic variability and anthropogenic environmental changes. This study fills a significant research gap by modeling the dynamic relationship between fishery production and climatic drivers using annual time-series data from 1981 to 2022. We employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to estimate long- and short-run climatic elasticities, while acknowledging that this model captures statistical associations rather than direct causal physical mechanisms. The results confirm a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables (F-statistic = 4.661). Long-run estimates reveal that climatic factors are significant drivers of production: a 1% increase in wind speed and mean temperature is associated with a 1.45% and 2.20% increase in fishery yields, respectively. This positive correlation is consistent with enhanced alongshore wind stress that strengthens monsoon-driven coastal upwelling. Conversely, anthropogenic pollution poses a significant threat, with a 1% rise in CO₂ emissions correlating with a 0.17% decline in production, suggesting ecosystem stress linked to acidification-induced reductions in primary productivity. The Error Correction Term (ECT) of − 0.367 indicates a stable, gradual adjustment to equilibrium following environmental shocks, reflecting the limited seaworthiness of an artisanal fleet that cannot operate during monsoon-generated turbulence. These findings suggest that while monsoon-driven coastal upwelling currently favors productivity, the global pressure of carbon emissions threatens long-term sustainability. Policy interventions must prioritize climate-resilient fisheries management, particularly fleet modernization, hazard forecasting systems, and spatial protection of upwelling-dependent ecosystems.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This is a visual summary that serves as a pivotal entry point into the research, offering a concise overview of the study’s core findings and methodologies. Comprising simple, clear visuals, such as diagrams, flowcharts, or illustrations, it effectively communicates complex data in an accessible format. This specific graphical abstract illustrates the Somali Coastal Upwelling System as the primary driver of the Blue Economy. The workflow follows the ARDL bounds testing process using 42 years of annual data (1981–2022). The logical flow guides the reader through the positive climatic drivers—temperature and wind speed—which enhance nutrient-rich upwelling, and the negative anthropogenic threat of CO₂ emissions leading to ocean acidification. Results highlight that while temperature and wind boost productivity by 2.20% and 1.45% respectively, carbon emissions cause a 0.17% annual decline. The central importance of the Error Correction Term (ECT = -0.367) is emphasized, showing rapid recovery from shocks. A clear call to action is presented through policy implications focusing on climate-resilient management and marine protection. This visual summary is a powerful tool for attracting attention and facilitating rapid comprehension, allowing researchers to quickly convey the essence of the Somali fishery paradox to a broad audience, increasing the visibility and impact of the research.</p>

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Blue Economy at Risk: Climate Variability and Fishery Production in Somalia—Evidence from ARDL Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月12日

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  • Mohamed Abdi Abdullahi,
  • Khadar Jama Osman,
  • Abdisalam Hassan Muse,
  • Yahye Hassan Muse,
  • Mukhtar Abdi Hassan,
  • Saralees Nadarajah

摘要

Somalia possesses the longest coastline on the African mainland, making its fishery sector a critical pillar for national food security and economic resilience in an arid region where terrestrial agriculture is often limited. However, this vital sector faces compounding threats from climatic variability and anthropogenic environmental changes. This study fills a significant research gap by modeling the dynamic relationship between fishery production and climatic drivers using annual time-series data from 1981 to 2022. We employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to estimate long- and short-run climatic elasticities, while acknowledging that this model captures statistical associations rather than direct causal physical mechanisms. The results confirm a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables (F-statistic = 4.661). Long-run estimates reveal that climatic factors are significant drivers of production: a 1% increase in wind speed and mean temperature is associated with a 1.45% and 2.20% increase in fishery yields, respectively. This positive correlation is consistent with enhanced alongshore wind stress that strengthens monsoon-driven coastal upwelling. Conversely, anthropogenic pollution poses a significant threat, with a 1% rise in CO₂ emissions correlating with a 0.17% decline in production, suggesting ecosystem stress linked to acidification-induced reductions in primary productivity. The Error Correction Term (ECT) of − 0.367 indicates a stable, gradual adjustment to equilibrium following environmental shocks, reflecting the limited seaworthiness of an artisanal fleet that cannot operate during monsoon-generated turbulence. These findings suggest that while monsoon-driven coastal upwelling currently favors productivity, the global pressure of carbon emissions threatens long-term sustainability. Policy interventions must prioritize climate-resilient fisheries management, particularly fleet modernization, hazard forecasting systems, and spatial protection of upwelling-dependent ecosystems.

Graphical Abstract

This is a visual summary that serves as a pivotal entry point into the research, offering a concise overview of the study’s core findings and methodologies. Comprising simple, clear visuals, such as diagrams, flowcharts, or illustrations, it effectively communicates complex data in an accessible format. This specific graphical abstract illustrates the Somali Coastal Upwelling System as the primary driver of the Blue Economy. The workflow follows the ARDL bounds testing process using 42 years of annual data (1981–2022). The logical flow guides the reader through the positive climatic drivers—temperature and wind speed—which enhance nutrient-rich upwelling, and the negative anthropogenic threat of CO₂ emissions leading to ocean acidification. Results highlight that while temperature and wind boost productivity by 2.20% and 1.45% respectively, carbon emissions cause a 0.17% annual decline. The central importance of the Error Correction Term (ECT = -0.367) is emphasized, showing rapid recovery from shocks. A clear call to action is presented through policy implications focusing on climate-resilient management and marine protection. This visual summary is a powerful tool for attracting attention and facilitating rapid comprehension, allowing researchers to quickly convey the essence of the Somali fishery paradox to a broad audience, increasing the visibility and impact of the research.