The large-scale ecological protection and intensified urbanization process have led to significant change in carbon balance pattern in Northeast China, further resulting in drastic fluctuations in carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems. Therefore, it’s necessary to analyze the evolution pattern of carbon balance in Northeast China and explore its driving mechanism. In this study, the spatially and temporally continuous net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was selected as the proxy of carbon balance, and the evolution pattern and driving factors of carbon balance in Northeast China was investigated. Results show that the average NEP in Northeast China has increased from 152.563 g C m− 2 yr− 1 in 2001 to 224.443 g C m− 2 yr− 1 in 2020, and the area of carbon sink regions has increased by 14.87%, demonstrating the gradually improving carbon balance pattern in Northeast China. In addition, 88.16% of the study area has shown an enhancement in carbon sequestration capacity over the past 20 years, which mainly can be found in ecological regions within the study area, demonstrating the positive role of ecological protection in improving carbon balance pattern. Our study also find that land-use conversion is the dominant single factor leading to the heterogeneity in carbon balance pattern in Northeast China, but the coupling of temperature and precipitation may have greater impact on carbon balance in most study area. Our findings will provide reference for formulating ecological protection and land development plans in Northeast China, which is particularly significant in the context of global warming and frequent extreme weather events. Graphical Abstract Carbon balance is crucial for assessing the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems, so it’s particularly urgent to obtain carbon balance pattern and analyze its driving factors, especially in the current context of climate change and frequent extreme weather events. In our study, the NEP derived from remote sensing data was selected as a proxy for carbon balance, and then meteorological data, land-use data, topographic data were coupled to reveal the evolution pattern of carbon balance in Northeast China from 2001 to 2020, as well as to explore the attribution of its heterogeneity over the past 20 years. Results indicate that carbon balance pattern in Northeast China has shown a fluctuating improving trend, which are mainly concentrated in ecological zones within the study area, demonstrating the important role of ecological protection in enhancing carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation ecosystems. In addition, this study also finds that the heterogeneity of carbon balance pattern in Northeast China is the result of multiple factors working together, among which land-use conversion is the dominant single factor. However, the coupling effect of temperature and precipitation may have the greater impact on carbon balance in most study area, emphasizing the significance of balancing ecological protection and urban development, which should be given sufficient attention in the context of global warming.

Evolution and Drivers of Carbon Balance in Northeast China under the Synergistic Effect of Ecological Protection and Urban Development

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发表日期：

2026年4月29日

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Zhilong Xi,
Yanqiu Xing,
Guizhen Chen,
Hongyu Yu

摘要

The large-scale ecological protection and intensified urbanization process have led to significant change in carbon balance pattern in Northeast China, further resulting in drastic fluctuations in carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems. Therefore, it’s necessary to analyze the evolution pattern of carbon balance in Northeast China and explore its driving mechanism. In this study, the spatially and temporally continuous net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was selected as the proxy of carbon balance, and the evolution pattern and driving factors of carbon balance in Northeast China was investigated. Results show that the average NEP in Northeast China has increased from 152.563 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1 in 2001 to 224.443 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1 in 2020, and the area of carbon sink regions has increased by 14.87%, demonstrating the gradually improving carbon balance pattern in Northeast China. In addition, 88.16% of the study area has shown an enhancement in carbon sequestration capacity over the past 20 years, which mainly can be found in ecological regions within the study area, demonstrating the positive role of ecological protection in improving carbon balance pattern. Our study also find that land-use conversion is the dominant single factor leading to the heterogeneity in carbon balance pattern in Northeast China, but the coupling of temperature and precipitation may have greater impact on carbon balance in most study area. Our findings will provide reference for formulating ecological protection and land development plans in Northeast China, which is particularly significant in the context of global warming and frequent extreme weather events.

Graphical Abstract

Carbon balance is crucial for assessing the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems, so it’s particularly urgent to obtain carbon balance pattern and analyze its driving factors, especially in the current context of climate change and frequent extreme weather events. In our study, the NEP derived from remote sensing data was selected as a proxy for carbon balance, and then meteorological data, land-use data, topographic data were coupled to reveal the evolution pattern of carbon balance in Northeast China from 2001 to 2020, as well as to explore the attribution of its heterogeneity over the past 20 years. Results indicate that carbon balance pattern in Northeast China has shown a fluctuating improving trend, which are mainly concentrated in ecological zones within the study area, demonstrating the important role of ecological protection in enhancing carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation ecosystems. In addition, this study also finds that the heterogeneity of carbon balance pattern in Northeast China is the result of multiple factors working together, among which land-use conversion is the dominant single factor. However, the coupling effect of temperature and precipitation may have the greater impact on carbon balance in most study area, emphasizing the significance of balancing ecological protection and urban development, which should be given sufficient attention in the context of global warming.