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<p>Drought is a natural hazard that causes adverse impacts on plants, animals, people, and the ecosystem. However, previous studies on meteorological drought in Ethiopia have not fully captured its spatial variability and temporal trends due to sparse stations and coarse datasets. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal drought and the trends of <i>Kiremt</i> rainfall over Ethiopia, which is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture characterized by frequent droughts. This study examined the potential of the newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPSV2.0) rainfall product to understand the spatiotemporal variability of drought and its trends over Ethiopia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) were used to compute the drought condition and drought severity classes of rainy months and seasons at 1- and 4-month time steps. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator were applied to detect the trends and rate of drought change. The results revealed severe drought (SPI-1 = − 2.56) in July and (SPI-4 = − 1.71) for the entire <i>Kiremt</i> season, both recorded in 2015. The drought magnitude during the primary wet season varied from − 6.0 to -13.3. The southeastern Ethiopia experienced more frequent drought risk events during the <i>Kiremt</i> season. In the SPI-1 and SPI-4 analyses of the <i>Kiremt</i> season, almost half of the grid points exhibited an increasing drought trend that was not statistically significant. Hence, assessments of drought risk events are essential for effective drought risk management, early warning responses, local-scale planning, and food security management (diversifying livelihoods, managing water resources, and strengthening financial security).</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Trends of Meteorological Drought over Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月24日

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  • Tilahun Sewagegn Asaye,
  • Mekonen Getachew Abebe,
  • Endeg Aniley

摘要

Drought is a natural hazard that causes adverse impacts on plants, animals, people, and the ecosystem. However, previous studies on meteorological drought in Ethiopia have not fully captured its spatial variability and temporal trends due to sparse stations and coarse datasets. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal drought and the trends of Kiremt rainfall over Ethiopia, which is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture characterized by frequent droughts. This study examined the potential of the newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPSV2.0) rainfall product to understand the spatiotemporal variability of drought and its trends over Ethiopia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) were used to compute the drought condition and drought severity classes of rainy months and seasons at 1- and 4-month time steps. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator were applied to detect the trends and rate of drought change. The results revealed severe drought (SPI-1 = − 2.56) in July and (SPI-4 = − 1.71) for the entire Kiremt season, both recorded in 2015. The drought magnitude during the primary wet season varied from − 6.0 to -13.3. The southeastern Ethiopia experienced more frequent drought risk events during the Kiremt season. In the SPI-1 and SPI-4 analyses of the Kiremt season, almost half of the grid points exhibited an increasing drought trend that was not statistically significant. Hence, assessments of drought risk events are essential for effective drought risk management, early warning responses, local-scale planning, and food security management (diversifying livelihoods, managing water resources, and strengthening financial security).

Graphical Abstract