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<p>Bangladesh consistently experiences some of the world’s highest fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, yet decision-ready subnational health evidence has been scarce. This study presents, to the best of current knowledge, the first subdistrict-level, age-resolved assessment of PM2.5-attributable mortality and years of life lost (YLL) for Bangladesh, linking monthly 0.01° PM2.5 fields (V5.GL.03) with age- and cause-specific baseline mortality. Exposure–response functions are estimated using the Global Exposure Mortality Model, and cause-specific mortality is quantified via the Global Burden of Disease approach for ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, and lung cancer. Mortality to 2030, 2035, and 2040 is projected by harmonizing GAINS-derived PM2.5 under a modified Current Legislation (CLE) and a Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenario. In 2021, the analysis estimates 225,543 deaths and 1,794,893 YLL attributable to PM2.5, with Dhaka, Chattogram, and Comilla among the highest-burden districts; Gazipur Sadar exhibits the highest concentration (93.9&#xa0;µg/m³) and mortality (3,302 deaths). Although absolute mortality peaks at older ages, YLL is greatest in the 50–54 age group, indicating substantial premature loss of life. Under modified CLE, projected deaths rise to 299,153 in 2030, 328,661 in 2035, and 410,979 in 2040 (+ 26.4%, + 45.7%, + 82.2% versus 2021). In contrast, MFR yields reductions of 46.7%, 69.7%, and 67.5% in those years, indicating large, actionable health gains from aggressive controls. By combining high-resolution exposure data, age-specific risks, and forward-looking policy scenarios, the study provides novel, decision-relevant evidence to prioritize interventions, target vulnerable age groups, and quantify the health benefits of stringent air quality management in Bangladesh.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract provides a high-level overview of a landmark study evaluating the health burden of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) in Bangladesh, with projections extending to 2040. Using a high-resolution spatial and age-specific framework, the study employs satellite-derived PM₂.₅ exposure data, age-disaggregated demographic data, and advanced epidemiological modeling to provide the most detailed assessment to date of PM₂.₅-attributable mortality and Years of Life Lost (YLL) at the sub-district level. A central methodological innovation lies in combining the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) with Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates to derive exposure–response functions for five major diseases: Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), Stroke, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Lung Cancer (LC), and Lower Respiratory Infections (LRI). These functions were applied to gridded PM₂.₅ concentration data at 0.01° resolution and linked with population and mortality baselines to estimate deaths and YLL across 12 age groups. There are 225,543 deaths and over 1.79&#xa0;million YLL attributable to PM₂.₅ in 2021, with the highest burden falling on individuals aged 50–54 years (YLL) and 80 + years (mortality). Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model projections under two policy scenarios: Modified Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) showed PM₂.₅-related deaths increasing dramatically from 2021 for CLE, while decreasing for MFR. The visualized map and charts underscore the spatial inequalities and age-related disparities in PM₂.₅ burden. The most polluted and vulnerable areas, particularly urban-industrial zones, experience both the highest concentrations and mortality. Overall, the graphical abstract provides decision-ready, subnational-level evidence that emphasizes the urgent need for localized, aggressive, and data-driven interventions.</p>

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High-Resolution Mapping of PM2.5 Health Burden in Bangladesh: Subdistrict-Level Mortality and Scenario-Based Projections to 2040

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月4日

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  • Azka Touhida Daiby,
  • Abu Syed Mohammed Maksud Kamal,
  • Shamsuddin Shahid

摘要

Bangladesh consistently experiences some of the world’s highest fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, yet decision-ready subnational health evidence has been scarce. This study presents, to the best of current knowledge, the first subdistrict-level, age-resolved assessment of PM2.5-attributable mortality and years of life lost (YLL) for Bangladesh, linking monthly 0.01° PM2.5 fields (V5.GL.03) with age- and cause-specific baseline mortality. Exposure–response functions are estimated using the Global Exposure Mortality Model, and cause-specific mortality is quantified via the Global Burden of Disease approach for ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, and lung cancer. Mortality to 2030, 2035, and 2040 is projected by harmonizing GAINS-derived PM2.5 under a modified Current Legislation (CLE) and a Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenario. In 2021, the analysis estimates 225,543 deaths and 1,794,893 YLL attributable to PM2.5, with Dhaka, Chattogram, and Comilla among the highest-burden districts; Gazipur Sadar exhibits the highest concentration (93.9 µg/m³) and mortality (3,302 deaths). Although absolute mortality peaks at older ages, YLL is greatest in the 50–54 age group, indicating substantial premature loss of life. Under modified CLE, projected deaths rise to 299,153 in 2030, 328,661 in 2035, and 410,979 in 2040 (+ 26.4%, + 45.7%, + 82.2% versus 2021). In contrast, MFR yields reductions of 46.7%, 69.7%, and 67.5% in those years, indicating large, actionable health gains from aggressive controls. By combining high-resolution exposure data, age-specific risks, and forward-looking policy scenarios, the study provides novel, decision-relevant evidence to prioritize interventions, target vulnerable age groups, and quantify the health benefits of stringent air quality management in Bangladesh.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract provides a high-level overview of a landmark study evaluating the health burden of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) in Bangladesh, with projections extending to 2040. Using a high-resolution spatial and age-specific framework, the study employs satellite-derived PM₂.₅ exposure data, age-disaggregated demographic data, and advanced epidemiological modeling to provide the most detailed assessment to date of PM₂.₅-attributable mortality and Years of Life Lost (YLL) at the sub-district level. A central methodological innovation lies in combining the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) with Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates to derive exposure–response functions for five major diseases: Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), Stroke, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Lung Cancer (LC), and Lower Respiratory Infections (LRI). These functions were applied to gridded PM₂.₅ concentration data at 0.01° resolution and linked with population and mortality baselines to estimate deaths and YLL across 12 age groups. There are 225,543 deaths and over 1.79 million YLL attributable to PM₂.₅ in 2021, with the highest burden falling on individuals aged 50–54 years (YLL) and 80 + years (mortality). Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model projections under two policy scenarios: Modified Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) showed PM₂.₅-related deaths increasing dramatically from 2021 for CLE, while decreasing for MFR. The visualized map and charts underscore the spatial inequalities and age-related disparities in PM₂.₅ burden. The most polluted and vulnerable areas, particularly urban-industrial zones, experience both the highest concentrations and mortality. Overall, the graphical abstract provides decision-ready, subnational-level evidence that emphasizes the urgent need for localized, aggressive, and data-driven interventions.