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<p>Water scarcity represents a critical challenge for sustainable urban development in hyper-arid environments, where rapid demographic growth and socioeconomic expansion intensify pressure on limited water resources. This study develops a spatially explicit application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system to assess long-term urban water demand dynamics in Tamanghasset, southern Algeria, a groundwater-dependent Saharan city characterized by extreme climatic constraints and infrastructure limitations. Unlike conventional basin-scale WEAP applications, the proposed framework integrates intra-urban modelling across fifteen sectors and adopts a static supply assumption to isolate structural demand-driven vulnerabilities under constrained water availability. Water demand was simulated for the period 2020–2060 using contrasted planning scenarios combining demographic growth rates (1.1% and 3.2%) and per capita service levels (60, 120, and 150&#xa0;L/person/day), consistent with national demographic trends and international water service benchmarks. Results indicate substantial divergence among scenarios. Under the reference service level (120&#xa0;L/person/day), total demand increases from approximately 9.8&#xa0;Mm³ in 2020 to 50.6&#xa0;Mm³ by 2060, significantly exceeding the current supply capacity of about 11.8&#xa0;Mm³/year. Even under conservative assumptions, demand growth leads to persistent structural deficits, while high-growth scenarios produce severe imbalances. Spatial analysis reveals that densely populated sectors, including Guet-el-Oued, Tahaggart Ouest, Sersouf, and Sorou, consistently emerge as demand hotspots, highlighting pronounced intra-urban inequalities. The analysis emphasizes that projected deficits arise primarily from structural demand dynamics rather than short-term variability. Results should therefore be interpreted as scenario-based planning insights rather than deterministic forecasts, acknowledging uncertainties associated with demographic projections and allocation assumptions. The findings demonstrate the value of WEAP as a decision-support framework for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), supporting proactive strategies such as efficiency improvements, demand management, wastewater reuse, and diversification of water supply options to enhance long-term resilience in hyper-arid urban systems.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>In a context increasingly defined by climatic and socio-demographic pressures, understanding the future dynamics of water supply and demand is a significant challenge for the sustainable management of water resources in arid environments. This study introduces a prospective modelling approach to assess water supply-demand dynamics within the Tamanrasset watershed using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. The analysis involves a spatial characterization of the basin, identification of key water sources and demand sites, and a sectoral breakdown of water usage, encompassing domestic, agricultural, industrial, public, and tourism sectors. The modelling framework accounts for demographic developments and their impacts on water demand by creating multiple contrasting future scenarios that reflect different growth trajectories and anthropogenic pressures. The findings indicate a gradual increase in water demand across the basin, marked by significant spatial and sectoral disparities. The most constraining scenarios highlight the rising pressure on available water resources, underscoring the vulnerability of the water supply system to future stressors. This study illustrates the utility of prospective modelling as a decision-support tool and underscores the necessity for integrated and proactive water resource management strategies to ensure long-term water sustainability in arid regions.</p>

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Using the WEAP Model to Analyze Water Supply and Demand Dynamics in the Tamanghasset Watershed Under Future Stressors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

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  • Abderrahmane Ballah,
  • Morad Chahid,
  • Mourad Aqnouy,
  • Abdelghani Elhoussaoui,
  • Benaabidate Lahcen,
  • Khlood Ghalib Alrasheedi,
  • Gamal El Afandi

摘要

Water scarcity represents a critical challenge for sustainable urban development in hyper-arid environments, where rapid demographic growth and socioeconomic expansion intensify pressure on limited water resources. This study develops a spatially explicit application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system to assess long-term urban water demand dynamics in Tamanghasset, southern Algeria, a groundwater-dependent Saharan city characterized by extreme climatic constraints and infrastructure limitations. Unlike conventional basin-scale WEAP applications, the proposed framework integrates intra-urban modelling across fifteen sectors and adopts a static supply assumption to isolate structural demand-driven vulnerabilities under constrained water availability. Water demand was simulated for the period 2020–2060 using contrasted planning scenarios combining demographic growth rates (1.1% and 3.2%) and per capita service levels (60, 120, and 150 L/person/day), consistent with national demographic trends and international water service benchmarks. Results indicate substantial divergence among scenarios. Under the reference service level (120 L/person/day), total demand increases from approximately 9.8 Mm³ in 2020 to 50.6 Mm³ by 2060, significantly exceeding the current supply capacity of about 11.8 Mm³/year. Even under conservative assumptions, demand growth leads to persistent structural deficits, while high-growth scenarios produce severe imbalances. Spatial analysis reveals that densely populated sectors, including Guet-el-Oued, Tahaggart Ouest, Sersouf, and Sorou, consistently emerge as demand hotspots, highlighting pronounced intra-urban inequalities. The analysis emphasizes that projected deficits arise primarily from structural demand dynamics rather than short-term variability. Results should therefore be interpreted as scenario-based planning insights rather than deterministic forecasts, acknowledging uncertainties associated with demographic projections and allocation assumptions. The findings demonstrate the value of WEAP as a decision-support framework for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), supporting proactive strategies such as efficiency improvements, demand management, wastewater reuse, and diversification of water supply options to enhance long-term resilience in hyper-arid urban systems.

Graphical Abstract

In a context increasingly defined by climatic and socio-demographic pressures, understanding the future dynamics of water supply and demand is a significant challenge for the sustainable management of water resources in arid environments. This study introduces a prospective modelling approach to assess water supply-demand dynamics within the Tamanrasset watershed using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. The analysis involves a spatial characterization of the basin, identification of key water sources and demand sites, and a sectoral breakdown of water usage, encompassing domestic, agricultural, industrial, public, and tourism sectors. The modelling framework accounts for demographic developments and their impacts on water demand by creating multiple contrasting future scenarios that reflect different growth trajectories and anthropogenic pressures. The findings indicate a gradual increase in water demand across the basin, marked by significant spatial and sectoral disparities. The most constraining scenarios highlight the rising pressure on available water resources, underscoring the vulnerability of the water supply system to future stressors. This study illustrates the utility of prospective modelling as a decision-support tool and underscores the necessity for integrated and proactive water resource management strategies to ensure long-term water sustainability in arid regions.