<p>Torrential floods are among the most destructive hydrological hazards due to their sudden onset and high flow energy. This study assesses torrential flood susceptibility in the Čemernica River basin (central Serbia) using two expert-based multi-criteria decision-making approaches: the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Best–Worst Model (BWM). The analysis integrates hydrological characteristics of the basin, including pronounced discharge variability and the extreme flood event of May 15, 2014, when peak flow reached 240&#xa0;m³/s following intense rainfall. Eight flood-conditioning factors – geology, altitude, slope, distance from rivers, river network density, annual precipitation, land use, and bare-soil index, were derived from Sentinel-2 imagery, a digital elevation model, and ancillary spatial datasets and processed within a GIS framework. Weighting coefficients were assigned using both methods, resulting in differences in the relative importance of conditioning factors, where distance from rivers and river network density emerged as dominant contributors, while elevation and the bare-soil index showed minor influence. According to AHP, 22.33% of the basin was classified as highly susceptible and 5.99% as very highly susceptible, whereas BWM identified 20.46% and 7.28% for same classes. A composite susceptibility map was generated by integrating these results, enabling spatial identification of settlements and industrial facilities located in zones of higher flood susceptibility. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the internal consistency and robustness of the applied weighting schemes for both models. The results represent a susceptibility assessment rather than a flood hazard or risk analysis, as they do not explicitly account for event probability, exposure, or vulnerability, nor include event-by-event validation. Despite these limitations, the findings provide valuable insight into spatial patterns of torrential flood susceptibility and support disaster management and sustainable spatial planning in data-limited environments.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>The graphical abstract summarizes the analytical workflow and visual logic of the susceptibility mapping procedure applied in the Čemernica River basin. The figure is organized from left to right, starting with the study area and spatial input layers derived from remote sensing and GIS analyses, followed by a workflow diagram outlining criteria selection, and spatial integration in a GIS environment. Intermediate panels illustrate the generation of individual susceptibility maps using two parallel expert-based multi-criteria models (AHP and BWM), which are subsequently integrated into a composite susceptibility map. The final panel highlights areas classified into higher susceptibility classes and their spatial relation to settlements and industrial facilities. A results section presents the susceptibility maps generated using the AHP and BWM approaches, as well as their integrated composite map.</p>

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GIS-based Spatial Prediction of Torrential Flood Susceptibility Using Sentinel-2 Data: A Case Study of the Čemernica River Basin, Serbia

  • Ivan Samardžić,
  • Irena Blagajac,
  • Uroš Durlević,
  • Dejan Filipović,
  • Ivan Novković,
  • Slavoljub Dragićević

摘要

Torrential floods are among the most destructive hydrological hazards due to their sudden onset and high flow energy. This study assesses torrential flood susceptibility in the Čemernica River basin (central Serbia) using two expert-based multi-criteria decision-making approaches: the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Best–Worst Model (BWM). The analysis integrates hydrological characteristics of the basin, including pronounced discharge variability and the extreme flood event of May 15, 2014, when peak flow reached 240 m³/s following intense rainfall. Eight flood-conditioning factors – geology, altitude, slope, distance from rivers, river network density, annual precipitation, land use, and bare-soil index, were derived from Sentinel-2 imagery, a digital elevation model, and ancillary spatial datasets and processed within a GIS framework. Weighting coefficients were assigned using both methods, resulting in differences in the relative importance of conditioning factors, where distance from rivers and river network density emerged as dominant contributors, while elevation and the bare-soil index showed minor influence. According to AHP, 22.33% of the basin was classified as highly susceptible and 5.99% as very highly susceptible, whereas BWM identified 20.46% and 7.28% for same classes. A composite susceptibility map was generated by integrating these results, enabling spatial identification of settlements and industrial facilities located in zones of higher flood susceptibility. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the internal consistency and robustness of the applied weighting schemes for both models. The results represent a susceptibility assessment rather than a flood hazard or risk analysis, as they do not explicitly account for event probability, exposure, or vulnerability, nor include event-by-event validation. Despite these limitations, the findings provide valuable insight into spatial patterns of torrential flood susceptibility and support disaster management and sustainable spatial planning in data-limited environments.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract summarizes the analytical workflow and visual logic of the susceptibility mapping procedure applied in the Čemernica River basin. The figure is organized from left to right, starting with the study area and spatial input layers derived from remote sensing and GIS analyses, followed by a workflow diagram outlining criteria selection, and spatial integration in a GIS environment. Intermediate panels illustrate the generation of individual susceptibility maps using two parallel expert-based multi-criteria models (AHP and BWM), which are subsequently integrated into a composite susceptibility map. The final panel highlights areas classified into higher susceptibility classes and their spatial relation to settlements and industrial facilities. A results section presents the susceptibility maps generated using the AHP and BWM approaches, as well as their integrated composite map.