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<p>Climate change is intensifying temperature and precipitation extremes, posing serious threats to Pakistan’s agricultural productivity, water availability, and socioeconomic stability. Pakistan, consistently ranked among the most climate-vulnerable nations globally, exhibits strong climatic heterogeneity across its agroecological zones, necessitating localized climate assessments. However, existing studies largely focus on national or provincial scales, rely on shorter historical periods, often using single or outdated climate models (CMIP5), and rarely integrate future projections with vulnerability assessments, limiting their utility for targeted adaptation planning. This study analyses historical trends (1901–2022) and future projections (2020–2099) of temperature and precipitation, using CRU TS 4.07 multi-gridded data and CMIP6s ensembled multi-model projections under two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 across the ten agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. It aims to identify possible vulnerabilities to climate change by applying statistical analysis of Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator for analysing long-term trends. Vulnerability was further assessed through heat risk, largest 1-day precipitation extremes for future return period of 50-year event, tropical cyclone projections, and SPEI-12 drought indices. Historical results reveal a statistically significant warming trend of approximately 1–1.2&#xa0;°C since 1901, with the most pronounced increase of <b>+</b> 0.013℃ per year in Zone 10 Western Dry Plateau and <b>+</b> 0.012℃ per year in Zone 1 Coastal Zone. Precipitation showed a slight upward trend but remained highly variable across zones and seasons, especially intensifying up to 0.17&#xa0;mm per year in Zone 8 Temperate Mountains. Future projections indicate an annual mean temperature increase of up to 2.8&#xa0;°C under SSP2-4.5 and 5.3&#xa0;°C under SSP5-8.5 by the century’s end. Precipitation is projected to rise by 450&#xa0;mm (SSP2-4.5) and 510&#xa0;mm (SSP5-8.5), accompanied by greater variability and more intense rainfall events. Vulnerability analysis highlights prolonged extreme heat periods in the south, shorter return periods for extreme rainfall in northern and central zones, increased cyclone intensity in coastal regions, and persistent drought risks along with population exposure in southwestern zones. These findings underscore the urgent need for zone-specific adaptation strategies that reflects the contrasting droughts, floods and heat risks across Pakistan’s agroecological zones. By considering historical trends, and future vulnerability projections, this study provides critical insights to support climate-resilient policy planning, particularly for agriculture, water resource, and disaster risk management in Pakistan.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This study presents an integrated climate assessment framework to evaluate historical and projected climatic trends and vulnerabilities across Pakistan’s ten agroecological zones. Gridded temperature and precipitation data from CRU TS (1901–2022) and CMIP6 projections (2020–2099) were extracted using Google Earth Pro and processed in ArcMap. Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were applied to detect historical trends, while CMIP6 multi-model ensembles under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios provided future projections across four time slices. Data visualization incorporated temporal graphs, regression analyses, and geospatial mapping of temperature and precipitation changes. Results indicate a historical warming of 1&#xa0;°C for the time period 1901–2022, with projected increases of + 2.7&#xa0;°C (SSP2-4.5) and + 5.2&#xa0;°C (SSP5-8.5), and precipitation increases of + 48&#xa0;mm and + 104&#xa0;mm, respectively. Vulnerability assessments highlight increased heat risks, extreme rainfall events, cyclone exposure, and drought persistence. These findings emphasize the need for zone-specific climate adaptation strategies to strengthen resilience in Pakistan’s agriculture, water management, and disaster risk reduction efforts.</p>

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Assessing Climate Change and Vulnerability Across Pakistan’s Agroecological Zones using Historical Trends and CMIP6 Projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月21日

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  • Manahil Mohammed Amin,
  • Fasiha Safdar,
  • Junaid Aziz Khan,
  • Muhammad Fahim Khokhar,
  • Mahesh Bade

摘要

Climate change is intensifying temperature and precipitation extremes, posing serious threats to Pakistan’s agricultural productivity, water availability, and socioeconomic stability. Pakistan, consistently ranked among the most climate-vulnerable nations globally, exhibits strong climatic heterogeneity across its agroecological zones, necessitating localized climate assessments. However, existing studies largely focus on national or provincial scales, rely on shorter historical periods, often using single or outdated climate models (CMIP5), and rarely integrate future projections with vulnerability assessments, limiting their utility for targeted adaptation planning. This study analyses historical trends (1901–2022) and future projections (2020–2099) of temperature and precipitation, using CRU TS 4.07 multi-gridded data and CMIP6s ensembled multi-model projections under two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 across the ten agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. It aims to identify possible vulnerabilities to climate change by applying statistical analysis of Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator for analysing long-term trends. Vulnerability was further assessed through heat risk, largest 1-day precipitation extremes for future return period of 50-year event, tropical cyclone projections, and SPEI-12 drought indices. Historical results reveal a statistically significant warming trend of approximately 1–1.2 °C since 1901, with the most pronounced increase of + 0.013℃ per year in Zone 10 Western Dry Plateau and + 0.012℃ per year in Zone 1 Coastal Zone. Precipitation showed a slight upward trend but remained highly variable across zones and seasons, especially intensifying up to 0.17 mm per year in Zone 8 Temperate Mountains. Future projections indicate an annual mean temperature increase of up to 2.8 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 5.3 °C under SSP5-8.5 by the century’s end. Precipitation is projected to rise by 450 mm (SSP2-4.5) and 510 mm (SSP5-8.5), accompanied by greater variability and more intense rainfall events. Vulnerability analysis highlights prolonged extreme heat periods in the south, shorter return periods for extreme rainfall in northern and central zones, increased cyclone intensity in coastal regions, and persistent drought risks along with population exposure in southwestern zones. These findings underscore the urgent need for zone-specific adaptation strategies that reflects the contrasting droughts, floods and heat risks across Pakistan’s agroecological zones. By considering historical trends, and future vulnerability projections, this study provides critical insights to support climate-resilient policy planning, particularly for agriculture, water resource, and disaster risk management in Pakistan.

Graphical Abstract

This study presents an integrated climate assessment framework to evaluate historical and projected climatic trends and vulnerabilities across Pakistan’s ten agroecological zones. Gridded temperature and precipitation data from CRU TS (1901–2022) and CMIP6 projections (2020–2099) were extracted using Google Earth Pro and processed in ArcMap. Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were applied to detect historical trends, while CMIP6 multi-model ensembles under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios provided future projections across four time slices. Data visualization incorporated temporal graphs, regression analyses, and geospatial mapping of temperature and precipitation changes. Results indicate a historical warming of 1 °C for the time period 1901–2022, with projected increases of + 2.7 °C (SSP2-4.5) and + 5.2 °C (SSP5-8.5), and precipitation increases of + 48 mm and + 104 mm, respectively. Vulnerability assessments highlight increased heat risks, extreme rainfall events, cyclone exposure, and drought persistence. These findings emphasize the need for zone-specific climate adaptation strategies to strengthen resilience in Pakistan’s agriculture, water management, and disaster risk reduction efforts.