<p>Understanding the characteristics of vegetation stress and their responses to hydroclimatic variability is critical for assessing ecosystem resilience and predicting ecological trajectories under ongoing global climate change. The CWANA region is among the most significant vegetation ecosystems, with a massive expanse of drylands. This study provides a detailed analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation stress and its influencing factors (precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture) in the region, using monthly MODIS-based vegetation condition index time series from 2000 to 2024. The findings of this study revealed that nearly 59% of the vegetated areas experienced 10–20 stress events, particularly observed in Kazakhstan and Ethiopia. The most prolonged stress events lasted nearly 17 months and were recorded in parts of Pakistan and the Horn of Africa. Almost 43% of major stress events occurred in the early 2000s, whereas recent years have witnessed non-stressed conditions. Despite several major stress occurrences, the vegetation in the study region exhibited an overall positive trend over the study period. Turkey and Pakistan experienced among the strongest greening trends. A stronger positive trend in vegetation was primarily observed in forests (mixed and evergreen) and cropland (an increase of around 1.5% per year). In contrast, grassland and shrubland exhibited a lower trend. Among the influencing factors, soil moisture accounts for the largest share of significant partial correlation coefficients (32.4% of the study area), followed by temperature. When stratified by land-cover, elevation, and aridity classes, the influence of soil moisture is strongest at lower elevations, in arid and semi-arid environments, and across rainfed croplands and mixed forest systems, where it accounts for roughly 35–36% of the total influence. This study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation stress in relation to climate and soil moisture under ongoing global climate change and the expansion of drylands.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This work represents the first effort to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation stress and its responses to hydroclimatic factors in the CWANA region between 2000 and 2024. In this study, we used the monthly cloud-free and gap-interpolated MODIS-based Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) to derive vegetation stress characteristics and trends from 2000 to 2024. Here, we examined the number of stress events, their duration, and the years of the greenest and brownest events using Run Theory, whereas trends were assessed using the Theil-Sen slope and the Mann-Kendall test. Next, we determined the influence of hydroclimatic factors (rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture) on vegetation dynamics using partial correlation analysis. This approach enabled the isolation of the specific impacts on vegetation after accounting for the effects of other factors. The findings of this study revealed frequent vegetation stress and declining vegetation cover in the study region. Also, vegetation-hydroclimatic analysis identified the widespread influence of soil moisture across the dryland. This work offers new insights into the large-scale characteristics of vegetation stress and its influencing factors across the CWANA region, providing a scientific basis for regional planning and mitigation strategies, promoting sustainable land and water management, and enhancing preparedness for future drought and climate extremes.</p>