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<p>Terminal lakes in arid regions serve as critical regulators of ecological security, making their responses to coupled climate change and human intervention a focal point of global change research. However, quantitatively disentangling the relative contributions of climate variability and anthropogenic activities remains a significant challenge due to the scarcity of long-term, reproducible evidence. This study constructs a long-term (1990–2024) surface area time series for Juyanhai Lake using a robust MNDWI–Otsu thresholding framework. A climate-driven residual attribution model was developed to isolate anthropogenic impacts from the natural hydrological baseline. The results reveal a distinct regime shift in lake dynamics around 2000. Prior to 2000, lake area variations were primarily governed by natural precipitation. However, a transition to human-dominated control occurred after 2005, with ecological water diversion becoming the primary driver of lake recovery. Specifically, anthropogenic forcing accounted for over 40% of the observed lake expansion during the peak regulation period in 2010. Crucially, the lake exhibited significant shrinkage during climatically favorable years when artificial water inputs were reduced, quantitatively confirming the high dependence of the contemporary lake system on human regulation.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Revealing Climate-Driven Lake Dynamics in Arid Regions: An Otsu-Based Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Juyanhai Lake

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月17日

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  • Ziyu Wang,
  • Qin Liu,
  • Hong Lv,
  • Huiliang Wang

摘要

Terminal lakes in arid regions serve as critical regulators of ecological security, making their responses to coupled climate change and human intervention a focal point of global change research. However, quantitatively disentangling the relative contributions of climate variability and anthropogenic activities remains a significant challenge due to the scarcity of long-term, reproducible evidence. This study constructs a long-term (1990–2024) surface area time series for Juyanhai Lake using a robust MNDWI–Otsu thresholding framework. A climate-driven residual attribution model was developed to isolate anthropogenic impacts from the natural hydrological baseline. The results reveal a distinct regime shift in lake dynamics around 2000. Prior to 2000, lake area variations were primarily governed by natural precipitation. However, a transition to human-dominated control occurred after 2005, with ecological water diversion becoming the primary driver of lake recovery. Specifically, anthropogenic forcing accounted for over 40% of the observed lake expansion during the peak regulation period in 2010. Crucially, the lake exhibited significant shrinkage during climatically favorable years when artificial water inputs were reduced, quantitatively confirming the high dependence of the contemporary lake system on human regulation.

Graphical Abstract