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<p>Climate change is emerging as a critical threat to food security, making basin-specific assessments of localized agricultural impacts essential. While previous studies have explored annual climatic variability across the Indus Basin, few have addressed crop-specific agroclimatic changes under future warming. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of key agroclimatic indicators across wheat-, rice-, and cotton-harvested areas in the Indus Basin, Pakistan, using bias-corrected projections from thirteen CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2026–2085 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The analysis focuses on three critical phenological stages (sowing, growing, and harvesting) across the Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons, with projected changes evaluated relative to the historical baseline through a multi-model ensemble approach. The findings indicate that the wheat-harvested region (WHR) and the cotton–rice-harvested region (CRHR) are projected to experience a warmer and wetter climate, with temperature increase ranging from <b>~</b> 2 to 7&#xa0;°C across scenarios and time horizons. Heat extremes rise significantly, with tropical nights increasing by up to ~ 40 during CRHR harvesting and ~ 70 during WHR sowing under SSP5-8.5, alongside up to ~ 55 more summer days during growing stages in both regions. Pronounced warming occurs during Rabi sowing and growing and Kharif harvesting stages. Total precipitation (PRCPTOT) may increase by ~ 100&#xa0;mm during Rabi sowing and Kharif growing and harvesting. Conversely, dry days and diurnal temperature range are projected to decline. These results align with earlier research and highlight that climate-induced intensification of agroclimatic extremes poses significant risks to agricultural productivity. The study underscores the urgent need for proactive, stage-specific adaptation strategies to safeguard food security in the Indus basin, Pakistan.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Shifting Agroclimatic Regimes: CMIP6 Ensemble Insights Into Phenology-Specific Climate Variability in the Indus Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月17日

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  • Fatima Ilyas,
  • Muhammad Azmat,
  • Haroon Ilyas,
  • Maryam Qadeer,
  • Robina Wahaj,
  • Shakil Ahmad,
  • Muhammad Arshad

摘要

Climate change is emerging as a critical threat to food security, making basin-specific assessments of localized agricultural impacts essential. While previous studies have explored annual climatic variability across the Indus Basin, few have addressed crop-specific agroclimatic changes under future warming. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of key agroclimatic indicators across wheat-, rice-, and cotton-harvested areas in the Indus Basin, Pakistan, using bias-corrected projections from thirteen CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2026–2085 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The analysis focuses on three critical phenological stages (sowing, growing, and harvesting) across the Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons, with projected changes evaluated relative to the historical baseline through a multi-model ensemble approach. The findings indicate that the wheat-harvested region (WHR) and the cotton–rice-harvested region (CRHR) are projected to experience a warmer and wetter climate, with temperature increase ranging from ~ 2 to 7 °C across scenarios and time horizons. Heat extremes rise significantly, with tropical nights increasing by up to ~ 40 during CRHR harvesting and ~ 70 during WHR sowing under SSP5-8.5, alongside up to ~ 55 more summer days during growing stages in both regions. Pronounced warming occurs during Rabi sowing and growing and Kharif harvesting stages. Total precipitation (PRCPTOT) may increase by ~ 100 mm during Rabi sowing and Kharif growing and harvesting. Conversely, dry days and diurnal temperature range are projected to decline. These results align with earlier research and highlight that climate-induced intensification of agroclimatic extremes poses significant risks to agricultural productivity. The study underscores the urgent need for proactive, stage-specific adaptation strategies to safeguard food security in the Indus basin, Pakistan.

Graphical Abstract