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<p>Climate‑vulnerable economies face a persistent tension: short‑term agricultural gains from rising temperatures can undermine long‑term sustainability. This study examines that balance by analyzing how temperature shifts, investment patterns, and export performance interacted in Bangladesh from 1992 to 2020. It introduces an “adaptive mirage,” a temporal trap in which modest warming temporarily boosts export growth through short‑run adaptability while obscuring vulnerabilities created by fossil‑fuel‑intensive investment a dynamic that differs from static non‑linear models by highlighting investment‑mediated temporal decoupling. Using a two‑stage econometric strategy instrumental variables and Dynamic ARDL simulations the analysis traces how investment indirectly affects exports through temperature. The results show that moderate warming historically increased agricultural export shares, but post‑2016 investment deepened dependence on fossil‑intensive infrastructure, heightening the risk of surpassing adaptive thresholds. What initially appears beneficial thus becomes a climate trap as long‑term warming intensifies. Renewable‑energy‑oriented investments offer mitigation potential but entail short‑term adjustment costs. Overall, the findings provide a threshold‑aware perspective on resilient growth and underscore climatic feedbacks within the investment–export nexus.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p> <p>This graphical abstract depicts the climate–investment–export nexus in Bangladesh from 1992 to 2020 climate–investment–export nexus. On the left, symbolic icons illustrate rising temperatures, shifting investment patterns—fossil versus renewable—and agricultural export performance as the main forces shaping economic outcomes key drivers. At the center, the Adaptive Mirage Mechanism shows how moderate warming can temporarily raise agricultural exports, suggesting short‑run adaptability adaptive mirage. Yet investment has increasingly flowed into energy‑intensive infrastructure, creating an indirect pathway through temperature that obscures deeper vulnerabilities indirect pathway. Dynamic ARDL simulations indicate a post‑2016 structural shift, where growing dependence on fossil‑intensive projects raises the likelihood of crossing adaptive thresholds, reflected by the warning symbol post‑2016 shift. On the right, the thermometer icon represents a threshold‑aware dynamic framework, while the green sprout signals conditional rather than assured resilience threshold‑aware framework. The policy segment highlights the need to prioritize renewable‑oriented investment, manage short‑term adjustment costs, and avoid fossil‑fuel lock‑in policy priorities. Overall, the figure illustrates how short‑term climate‑driven gains can ultimately evolve into a climate trap without climate‑responsive, threshold‑aware policy action climate trap risk.</p>

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The Adaptive Mirage: How Investment Fuels a Climate Trap for Bangladeshi Agriculture

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月6日

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  • Md Ali Emam,
  • Zhang Zhixin,
  • Ehsan Elahi,
  • Markus Leibrecht,
  • Saleh Shahriar,
  • Chen Ziang,
  • Syeeda Akhtar

摘要

Climate‑vulnerable economies face a persistent tension: short‑term agricultural gains from rising temperatures can undermine long‑term sustainability. This study examines that balance by analyzing how temperature shifts, investment patterns, and export performance interacted in Bangladesh from 1992 to 2020. It introduces an “adaptive mirage,” a temporal trap in which modest warming temporarily boosts export growth through short‑run adaptability while obscuring vulnerabilities created by fossil‑fuel‑intensive investment a dynamic that differs from static non‑linear models by highlighting investment‑mediated temporal decoupling. Using a two‑stage econometric strategy instrumental variables and Dynamic ARDL simulations the analysis traces how investment indirectly affects exports through temperature. The results show that moderate warming historically increased agricultural export shares, but post‑2016 investment deepened dependence on fossil‑intensive infrastructure, heightening the risk of surpassing adaptive thresholds. What initially appears beneficial thus becomes a climate trap as long‑term warming intensifies. Renewable‑energy‑oriented investments offer mitigation potential but entail short‑term adjustment costs. Overall, the findings provide a threshold‑aware perspective on resilient growth and underscore climatic feedbacks within the investment–export nexus.

Graphical abstract

This graphical abstract depicts the climate–investment–export nexus in Bangladesh from 1992 to 2020 climate–investment–export nexus. On the left, symbolic icons illustrate rising temperatures, shifting investment patterns—fossil versus renewable—and agricultural export performance as the main forces shaping economic outcomes key drivers. At the center, the Adaptive Mirage Mechanism shows how moderate warming can temporarily raise agricultural exports, suggesting short‑run adaptability adaptive mirage. Yet investment has increasingly flowed into energy‑intensive infrastructure, creating an indirect pathway through temperature that obscures deeper vulnerabilities indirect pathway. Dynamic ARDL simulations indicate a post‑2016 structural shift, where growing dependence on fossil‑intensive projects raises the likelihood of crossing adaptive thresholds, reflected by the warning symbol post‑2016 shift. On the right, the thermometer icon represents a threshold‑aware dynamic framework, while the green sprout signals conditional rather than assured resilience threshold‑aware framework. The policy segment highlights the need to prioritize renewable‑oriented investment, manage short‑term adjustment costs, and avoid fossil‑fuel lock‑in policy priorities. Overall, the figure illustrates how short‑term climate‑driven gains can ultimately evolve into a climate trap without climate‑responsive, threshold‑aware policy action climate trap risk.