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<p>This study examines how the atmospheric circulation depicted by the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) index shapes the moisture contribution from the Mediterranean Sea (MS) to precipitation over the Mediterranean region and Europe across all four seasons over 41&#xa0;years, from 1980 to 2020. For this aim, we used the WeMO index, precipitation and atmospheric moisture flux data, and global outputs from the Lagrangian model FLEXPART to track forward-in-time air masses over the MS and, along their trajectories, compute the moisture loss, which is considered a contribution to precipitation. The results show a predominant negative correlation between the WeMO and the moisture contribution from the MS and the precipitation over Western Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and northwestern Africa. In contrast, a positive correlation appears in the Balkans and Eastern Europe. The indirect relationship between the WeMO and the precipitation, mediated by the moisture contribution from the MS, was mainly positive in Eastern Europe and negative in the Western Mediterranean, especially in winter and towards the southeast of the IP, confirming its predictive capability. Eulerian water vapour flux divergence anomalies support these findings. This more than 30-year analysis enhances the understanding of ocean–atmosphere–land interactions and hydrological variability, offering insights for climate prediction. Future research should explore the WeMO atmospheric circulation relationship with hydroclimate variables under climate change.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Links between Western Mediterranean Oscillation and Mediterranean Moisture Paths: Implications for European Rainfall

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月31日

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  • Jakob Ernst,
  • Rogert Sorí,
  • Milica Stojanovic,
  • Raquel Nieto,
  • Luis Gimeno

摘要

This study examines how the atmospheric circulation depicted by the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) index shapes the moisture contribution from the Mediterranean Sea (MS) to precipitation over the Mediterranean region and Europe across all four seasons over 41 years, from 1980 to 2020. For this aim, we used the WeMO index, precipitation and atmospheric moisture flux data, and global outputs from the Lagrangian model FLEXPART to track forward-in-time air masses over the MS and, along their trajectories, compute the moisture loss, which is considered a contribution to precipitation. The results show a predominant negative correlation between the WeMO and the moisture contribution from the MS and the precipitation over Western Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and northwestern Africa. In contrast, a positive correlation appears in the Balkans and Eastern Europe. The indirect relationship between the WeMO and the precipitation, mediated by the moisture contribution from the MS, was mainly positive in Eastern Europe and negative in the Western Mediterranean, especially in winter and towards the southeast of the IP, confirming its predictive capability. Eulerian water vapour flux divergence anomalies support these findings. This more than 30-year analysis enhances the understanding of ocean–atmosphere–land interactions and hydrological variability, offering insights for climate prediction. Future research should explore the WeMO atmospheric circulation relationship with hydroclimate variables under climate change.

Graphical Abstract