To decode the sectoral structural shifts, identify the spatial hotspots of emissions, and clarify the policy pathways for regulating ammonia (NH3) emissions in China, this study used a high-resolution inventory validated against satellite (IASI) and ground-based data (R2 >0.8) to quantify China's atmospheric NH3 emissions from 2005 to 2021. Results confirm the overwhelming dominance of agricultural sources (AGRF: fertilizer application; AGRL: livestock manure), consistently contributing >80% of national emissions. Total emissions followed an inverted U-shaped trajectory, peaking around 2015 and declining thereafter, signaling the partial success of policies like the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan. Key dynamics include: remarkable spatial stability of AGRF emissions concentrated in the North China Plain and Sichuan Basin, versus significant geographical expansion of AGRL emissions into Northeast and Southwest China driven by livestock intensification; a rising national AGRL/AGRF ratio indicating a structural shift toward greater relative livestock contribution; and the emergence of TRON (on-road vehicles) as a primary growing urban source. Pronounced provincial disparities necessitate region-specific mitigation strategies. Future efforts must prioritize enhanced livestock management in expanding regions, NH3-targeted vehicle technologies, localized interventions leveraging high-resolution data, and strengthened regional coordination for transboundary impacts. Sustained inventory refinement and integrated monitoring are crucial for effective air quality management. Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract Descriptions: This graphical abstract provides a visually intuitive synthesis of our spatiotemporal analysis of agricultural fertilizer-derived ammonia (AGRF NH3) emissions across China from 2005 to 2021. The central map employs a color-gradient scheme to depict persistent emission hotspots, revealing two dominant zones: the North China Plain (Shandong-Henan-Hebei core) and Sichuan Basin, collectively contributing >65% of national emissions. Chronological evolution is visualized through embedded trendlines. Critical spatial determinants are symbolized. Designed as a stand-alone scientific visual, it enables readers to grasp three key findings instantly: (1) remarkable geographical persistence of emission cores despite annual fluctuations, (2) emission trends varied significantly in different zones, and (3) ineffective dispersion of basin-trapped pollutants. By condensing 16 years of spatial dynamics into a single image, it offers policymakers and researchers immediate access to China's AGRF NH3 landscape without consulting the full manuscript. The other important AGRL source of NH3 emission is also investigated in the manuscript.

China's Ammonia Enigma: Decoding Sectoral Shifts, Spatial Hotspots, and Policy Pathways (2005–2021)

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发表日期：

2026年1月6日

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Zongshuang Wang,
Jungang Lv

摘要

To decode the sectoral structural shifts, identify the spatial hotspots of emissions, and clarify the policy pathways for regulating ammonia (NH₃) emissions in China, this study used a high-resolution inventory validated against satellite (IASI) and ground-based data (R² >0.8) to quantify China's atmospheric NH₃ emissions from 2005 to 2021. Results confirm the overwhelming dominance of agricultural sources (AGRF: fertilizer application; AGRL: livestock manure), consistently contributing >80% of national emissions. Total emissions followed an inverted U-shaped trajectory, peaking around 2015 and declining thereafter, signaling the partial success of policies like the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan. Key dynamics include: remarkable spatial stability of AGRF emissions concentrated in the North China Plain and Sichuan Basin, versus significant geographical expansion of AGRL emissions into Northeast and Southwest China driven by livestock intensification; a rising national AGRL/AGRF ratio indicating a structural shift toward greater relative livestock contribution; and the emergence of TRON (on-road vehicles) as a primary growing urban source. Pronounced provincial disparities necessitate region-specific mitigation strategies. Future efforts must prioritize enhanced livestock management in expanding regions, NH₃-targeted vehicle technologies, localized interventions leveraging high-resolution data, and strengthened regional coordination for transboundary impacts. Sustained inventory refinement and integrated monitoring are crucial for effective air quality management.

Graphical Abstract

Graphical Abstract Descriptions: This graphical abstract provides a visually intuitive synthesis of our spatiotemporal analysis of agricultural fertilizer-derived ammonia (AGRF NH₃) emissions across China from 2005 to 2021. The central map employs a color-gradient scheme to depict persistent emission hotspots, revealing two dominant zones: the North China Plain (Shandong-Henan-Hebei core) and Sichuan Basin, collectively contributing >65% of national emissions. Chronological evolution is visualized through embedded trendlines. Critical spatial determinants are symbolized. Designed as a stand-alone scientific visual, it enables readers to grasp three key findings instantly: (1) remarkable geographical persistence of emission cores despite annual fluctuations, (2) emission trends varied significantly in different zones, and (3) ineffective dispersion of basin-trapped pollutants. By condensing 16 years of spatial dynamics into a single image, it offers policymakers and researchers immediate access to China's AGRF NH₃ landscape without consulting the full manuscript. The other important AGRL source of NH₃ emission is also investigated in the manuscript.