Three Decades of Climate Change in Iran: Spatiotemporal Evidence from National-Scale Meteorological Indicators
摘要
Iran is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its dry climate, diverse geography, and ongoing water challenges. This study assessed the climate trends in Iran over the past three decades (1993–2022) by analyzing key meteorological variables. We used daily data measured by the Iranian Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), and used only stations with more than 90% data completeness. Data were examined for significant trends using linear regression and Thiel-Sen slope analyses for 29 provincial capitals and mapped spatially across an expanded network of 69 cities. Results revealed widespread increases in mean temperatures, particularly in central, southern, and western mountainous regions (slopes from 0 to 0.146 °C per year in Isfahan and Zanjan, respectively). All cities in Iran showed an increasing trend in maximum temperature. Minimum temperatures displayed mixed patterns, predominantly increasing in the eastern and northern regions, while decreasing trends emerged in specific areas such as Isfahan. Precipitation exhibited spatially heterogeneous trends, with significant decreases in the southern and central regions and increases in parts of the northeast. Dew point temperatures generally decreased in the central and southern areas, while northern regions saw slight increases. Wind speeds increased significantly in the central, northeastern, and some northern cities, whereas declines were observed predominantly in the southern and western locations. Spatial mapping of decadal averages showed regional variability, highlighting substantial warming and drying trends in several regions. These observed climate changes have important implications for resource management and emphasize the necessity for targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate regional climate risks.
Graphical AbstractThis Graphical Abstract Serves as an Entry Point To a Nationwide Assessment of Iran’s Recent Climate evolution. Data Consist of Daily Records for Seven Meteorological indicators—mean, Maximum, and Minimum air-temperature, Precipitation, dew-point, Mean Wind speed, and Maximum Sustained Wind speed—retrieved from IRIMO and Archived in NOAA’s GSOD Database (1993–2022). Analyses Follow Two Parallel Tracks: (i) Annual linear-trend Detection for 29 Provincial Capitals and (ii) Decadal Trend Mapping for 69 cities, Combining Ordinary least-squares Regression with Inverse-Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation. Model Outputs Feed Directly into the Maps Displayed on the right-hand panels, Illustrating Spatial Changes in Mean Temperature, Maximum Temperature, and Rainfall for 2013–2022 Relative To the Two Preceding decades. Results Reveal Pronounced Warming Hotspots Over north-western Zagros Highlands and Central Iran, a Robust Rise in Maximum Temperature across ~ 90% of the country, and Marked Precipitation Declines in Central–southern Provinces Contrasted by Local Gains in the north-east. Together, these Patterns Indicate a Shift Toward a warmer, drier, and More Hydrologically Variable Climate, Underscoring the Urgency of region-specific Adaptation Strategies for Water management, agriculture, and Public Health