Scholarlink

<p>Eucalyptus plantations face high risks from climate change, particularly due to reduced water availability. This increases uncertainty about the sustainability of the global forestry sector, as current climate commitments under the Paris Agreement may fall short of restricting global warming to 1.5&#xa0;°C. This study analyzed the impacts of the global warming levels (GWLs) established by the Paris Agreement (1.5&#xa0;°C and 2&#xa0;°C), as well as two additional thresholds (3&#xa0;°C and 4&#xa0;°C) that indicate failure to meet these commitments on water availability for Eucalyptus plantations on a global scale. For this purpose, daily data on mean near-surface air temperature and accumulated precipitation from 30 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (1850 to 2100) and their statistically downscaled outputs from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) (1950 to 2100) were used, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). First, the years in which the GWLs were reached were identified, and then the water availability for each GWL was calculated. Additional air temperature increases from + 0.5&#xa0;°C to + 3&#xa0;°C across various regions in the 4 GLWs associated with heterogeneous annual precipitation patterns (± 150&#xa0;mm year<sup>− 1</sup>), may impact water availability. Increased crop evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration and water deficit, coupled with reduced water surplus are expected, mainly over Brazil, South Africa, southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), India, Thailand and Australia. The economic viability of Eucalyptus plantations could decline by 30% to 89% depending on the region. Without resilient and effective adaptation strategies, the sustainability of Eucalyptus plantations will be severely threatened.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract presents a global study on the impacts of four Global Warming Levels (GWLs) on water availability in eucalyptus plantations. The analysis utilized global climate data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 and from the high-resolution NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset. The study first identified the years at which the different GWLs (1.5&#xa0;°C, 2&#xa0;°C, 3&#xa0;°C, and 4&#xa0;°C) were reached, and assessed patterns of air temperature and cumulative precipitation using the CMIP6 GCMs. Subsequently, the years were then directly matched to their corresponding high-resolution counterparts in the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 GCMs. Then, these data were applied to a climatic water balance, which provides more accurate insights into actual evapotranspiration, water surplus, and water deficit. The results indicate an increase in crop evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and water deficit, coupled with a reduction in water surplus. These impacts are expected to be most pronounced at the higher GWLs of 3&#xa0;°C and 4&#xa0;°C. The most vulnerable regions identified include Brazil, South Africa, southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), India, Thailand, and Australia. Without effective adaptation measures, the sustainability and economic viability of eucalyptus plantations will be seriously threatened under high GWLs.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Global Warming Levels (1.5–4 °C) and Water Availability for Eucalyptus Plantations Based on High-resolution CMIP6 Models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月6日

查看全文
  • Flávia Fernanda Azevedo Fagundes,
  • Fabrina Bolzan Martins,
  • Roger Rodrigues Torres,
  • Vitor Hugo de Almeida Marrafon

摘要

Eucalyptus plantations face high risks from climate change, particularly due to reduced water availability. This increases uncertainty about the sustainability of the global forestry sector, as current climate commitments under the Paris Agreement may fall short of restricting global warming to 1.5 °C. This study analyzed the impacts of the global warming levels (GWLs) established by the Paris Agreement (1.5 °C and 2 °C), as well as two additional thresholds (3 °C and 4 °C) that indicate failure to meet these commitments on water availability for Eucalyptus plantations on a global scale. For this purpose, daily data on mean near-surface air temperature and accumulated precipitation from 30 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (1850 to 2100) and their statistically downscaled outputs from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) (1950 to 2100) were used, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). First, the years in which the GWLs were reached were identified, and then the water availability for each GWL was calculated. Additional air temperature increases from + 0.5 °C to + 3 °C across various regions in the 4 GLWs associated with heterogeneous annual precipitation patterns (± 150 mm year− 1), may impact water availability. Increased crop evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration and water deficit, coupled with reduced water surplus are expected, mainly over Brazil, South Africa, southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), India, Thailand and Australia. The economic viability of Eucalyptus plantations could decline by 30% to 89% depending on the region. Without resilient and effective adaptation strategies, the sustainability of Eucalyptus plantations will be severely threatened.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract presents a global study on the impacts of four Global Warming Levels (GWLs) on water availability in eucalyptus plantations. The analysis utilized global climate data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 and from the high-resolution NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset. The study first identified the years at which the different GWLs (1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C) were reached, and assessed patterns of air temperature and cumulative precipitation using the CMIP6 GCMs. Subsequently, the years were then directly matched to their corresponding high-resolution counterparts in the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 GCMs. Then, these data were applied to a climatic water balance, which provides more accurate insights into actual evapotranspiration, water surplus, and water deficit. The results indicate an increase in crop evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and water deficit, coupled with a reduction in water surplus. These impacts are expected to be most pronounced at the higher GWLs of 3 °C and 4 °C. The most vulnerable regions identified include Brazil, South Africa, southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), India, Thailand, and Australia. Without effective adaptation measures, the sustainability and economic viability of eucalyptus plantations will be seriously threatened under high GWLs.