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<p>Flooding is a recurring natural disaster, requiring attention to mitigate its effects on communities. This study assessed the flood extents and inundation depths in the Chenab River floodplain from Qadirabad to Trimmu, considering floods with various return periods of 25, 50, 100 and 200 years. River and floodplain geometry was obtained from physical surveys and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) with 30&#xa0;m resolution. Historical flow data was analyzed through Gumbel’s probability flood frequency analysis and various flood hydrographs were generated. Hydrodynamic modeling and flood inundation mapping were performed using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS, respectively. Calibration and validation of the model were carried out at two gauging stations (Chiniot and Rivaz), showing a high correlation coefficient (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.972 and 0.966) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC = 0.850 and 0.877). The model exhibited stability during simulations of flood discharges. The results were exported to ArcGIS for flood inundation mapping, with maps created, for various return periods, using (DEFRA <CitationRef CitationID="CR16">2006</CitationRef>) and ESCAP (<CitationRef CitationID="CR20">1991</CitationRef>) guidelines. This hydro-geospatial approach proved effective for evaluating flood hazards and assessing the effectiveness of flood control infrastructure in terms of inundation depth and flooded area. Weak flood infrastructure have been identified and their raising has been recommended to improve their effectiveness.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>As depicted above, this study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the available flood control infrastructure i.e., embankments/dikes in the Chenab River floodplain of Indus basin in Pakistan. Historical flow data was analyzed through Gumbel’s probability flood frequency analysis and various flood hydrographs were generated e.g., 25, 50, 100 and 200 year return period floods which represented the unprecedented floods. Hydrodynamic water surface profile modeling was performed using the HEC RAS in conjunction with GIS. On the well calibrated and validated hydraulic model, the unprecedented floods were run both with and without the flood control infrastructure in the floodplain. The flood hazard in the form of flood depth, flood velocity and flooded area was assessed using specific flood hazard assessment guidelines. Individual and combined effectiveness of flood control infrastructure has been assessed using hypsometric curves etc. Weak flood embankments/dikes have been identified and their raising has been recommended to reduce the flood impacts.</p>

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Hydro-geospatial Modeling for Assessing the Effectiveness of Flood Dikes against Unprecedented Floods: A Case Study of the Chenab River Floodplain in Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月17日

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  • Muhammad Asim Shoaib,
  • Saqib Ashraf,
  • Noor Muhammad Khan,
  • Muhammad Rizwan Riaz

摘要

Flooding is a recurring natural disaster, requiring attention to mitigate its effects on communities. This study assessed the flood extents and inundation depths in the Chenab River floodplain from Qadirabad to Trimmu, considering floods with various return periods of 25, 50, 100 and 200 years. River and floodplain geometry was obtained from physical surveys and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) with 30 m resolution. Historical flow data was analyzed through Gumbel’s probability flood frequency analysis and various flood hydrographs were generated. Hydrodynamic modeling and flood inundation mapping were performed using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS, respectively. Calibration and validation of the model were carried out at two gauging stations (Chiniot and Rivaz), showing a high correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.972 and 0.966) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC = 0.850 and 0.877). The model exhibited stability during simulations of flood discharges. The results were exported to ArcGIS for flood inundation mapping, with maps created, for various return periods, using (DEFRA 2006) and ESCAP (1991) guidelines. This hydro-geospatial approach proved effective for evaluating flood hazards and assessing the effectiveness of flood control infrastructure in terms of inundation depth and flooded area. Weak flood infrastructure have been identified and their raising has been recommended to improve their effectiveness.

Graphical Abstract

As depicted above, this study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the available flood control infrastructure i.e., embankments/dikes in the Chenab River floodplain of Indus basin in Pakistan. Historical flow data was analyzed through Gumbel’s probability flood frequency analysis and various flood hydrographs were generated e.g., 25, 50, 100 and 200 year return period floods which represented the unprecedented floods. Hydrodynamic water surface profile modeling was performed using the HEC RAS in conjunction with GIS. On the well calibrated and validated hydraulic model, the unprecedented floods were run both with and without the flood control infrastructure in the floodplain. The flood hazard in the form of flood depth, flood velocity and flooded area was assessed using specific flood hazard assessment guidelines. Individual and combined effectiveness of flood control infrastructure has been assessed using hypsometric curves etc. Weak flood embankments/dikes have been identified and their raising has been recommended to reduce the flood impacts.