Tropical Wildfires Analyzed Through Remote Sensing and Machine Learning
摘要
This study provides a new contribution to understanding wildfire dynamics in Alagoas, Northeastern Brazil, by applying machine learning techniques to identify stable spatial and temporal patterns of fire activity between 2012 and 2024. Active fire clusters were detected using the Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN) algorithm applied to VIIRS satellite data (S-NPP and NOAA-20). Associated atmospheric emissions of CO₂, PM₂.₅, and black carbon were assessed using data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), while vegetation variability was characterized through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results reveal distinct regional fire regimes: the Litoral and Zona da Mata exhibited the highest peaks of Fire Radiative Power (> 100 MW/h), largely linked to sugarcane burning, whereas the Sertão and São Francisco Sertão regions experienced more persistent events lasting up to 90 days, reflecting semiarid conditions and low soil moisture. Strong and highly significant correlations were found between FRP and atmospheric pollutants, particularly in the Litoral (r = 0.96; p = 0.0000), confirming the direct role of fire intensity as a determinant of emissions. The integration of clustering techniques with atmospheric and vegetation indicators highlights critical areas of vulnerability, providing new insights to guide land management strategies, fire prevention, and mitigation efforts aimed at containing air quality deterioration and environmental degradation in Alagoas.
Graphical AbstractThis visual summary serves as a pivotal entry point to the study, presenting an integrated assessment of fire dynamics, atmospheric emissions, and vegetation patterns in the state of Alagoas, northeastern Brazil, from 2012 to 2024. Distinct spatial and temporal fire patterns were identified across six sub-regions, with Litoral and Zona da Mata standing out for recording the highest Fire Radiative Power (FRP) peaks, frequently exceeding 100 MW/h, especially between September and March. These events are strongly associated with sugarcane burning, particularly in municipalities like Coruripe. In contrast, the Sertão and São Francisco Sertão regions experienced longer-lasting fires, persisting for up to 90 days, reflecting drier environmental conditions, including low soil moisture and vulnerable vegetation. Correlation analysis revealed strong positive associations between FRP and atmospheric emissions of CO₂, PM2.5, and black carbon across all regions, with coefficients above 0.80, highlighting Litoral as the most affected area. Spatial analysis of pollutant fluxes confirmed this pattern, also identifying Baixo São Francisco and parts of Zona da Mata as critical hotspots. Vegetation dynamics, assessed through NDVI, revealed a progressive degradation scenario, with significant loss from 2020 onwards and the lowest NDVI values recorded in 2024 in the most fire-affected areas. Sertão and São Francisco Sertão maintained persistently low NDVI values throughout the period, reflecting the combined effects of a semi-arid climate and recurrent fires. In summary, the findings indicate an intensification of the fire regime in Alagoas in recent years, with clear regional patterns leading to increased air pollution and ecosystem degradation. This scenario underscores the urgent need for integrated public policies focused on land management, fire prevention and control, and environmental preservation to mitigate the climate and social impacts associated with escalating fire activity in the state.