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<p>Groundwater is essential to human life and production, particularly in areas characterized by intense human activities. Despite its importance, the spatiotemporal dynamics of groundwater and the underlying mechanisms that drive these changes are still poorly understood in many locations. This study integrates data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System land surface model to investigate the spatiotemporal variations in groundwater storage (GWS) between 2002 and 2023 in Central China characterized by intensive anthropogenic activities. We delve into the factors driving these changes, considering both regional and grid-scale perspectives, with a special emphasis on the influence of agricultural activities. From 2002 to 2023, the GWS in the study area had been decreasing at a rate of -5.64&#xa0;mm/a. An in-depth analysis of the driving mechanisms underlying the groundwater evolution reveals that precipitation, agricultural water consumption, temperature, industrial water demand, and grain yield were the primary factors at the regional scale. At the grid scale, the significant positive influence of precipitation on GWS was predominantly concentrated in the southern part of the study region, whereas grain yield exerts a more pronounced negative effect on groundwater dynamics within the plain areas. These insights offer a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution and driving mechanisms of groundwater resources in intensively anthropogenic activities. Such knowledge is critical for formulating strategies aimed at the effective conservation and management of groundwater resources, thereby contributing to the long-term ecological and socioeconomic sustainability of the region.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of groundwater storage (GWS) in human-dominated areas of central China using integrated GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite data and the GLDAS Noah land surface model for the period 2002–2023. The GWS inversion results were validated against in situ groundwater monitoring data, demonstrating strong consistency and reliability (correlation: 0.70–0.76). The analysis reveals that groundwater storage in Henan Province showed a significant declining trend over the study period (-5.64&#xa0;mm/a), Spatiotemporal analysis shows seasonal “U-shaped” dynamics, with June deficits (−48.04&#xa0;mm) and October peaks (+36.41&#xa0;mm). Further, the study identifies the primary natural and anthropogenic drivers influencing GWS changes at both the regional and grid scales. Precipitation and agricultural water use were found to be the dominant factors regionally, while grid-scale analysis highlights the positive effect of precipitation in the south and the negative impact of grain production in the northern plains. These findings provide a scientific basis for targeted groundwater management and sustainable development in areas with intensive human activities.</p>

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Changes in Groundwater in Human-Dominated Areas of China: Assessing the Roles of Climate and Agriculture

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月30日

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  • Shaokun Wang,
  • Yanping Cao,
  • Xinhe Huang,
  • Kang Yang,
  • Xuejian Sun,
  • Dandan Liu,
  • Chaolin Mu

摘要

Groundwater is essential to human life and production, particularly in areas characterized by intense human activities. Despite its importance, the spatiotemporal dynamics of groundwater and the underlying mechanisms that drive these changes are still poorly understood in many locations. This study integrates data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System land surface model to investigate the spatiotemporal variations in groundwater storage (GWS) between 2002 and 2023 in Central China characterized by intensive anthropogenic activities. We delve into the factors driving these changes, considering both regional and grid-scale perspectives, with a special emphasis on the influence of agricultural activities. From 2002 to 2023, the GWS in the study area had been decreasing at a rate of -5.64 mm/a. An in-depth analysis of the driving mechanisms underlying the groundwater evolution reveals that precipitation, agricultural water consumption, temperature, industrial water demand, and grain yield were the primary factors at the regional scale. At the grid scale, the significant positive influence of precipitation on GWS was predominantly concentrated in the southern part of the study region, whereas grain yield exerts a more pronounced negative effect on groundwater dynamics within the plain areas. These insights offer a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution and driving mechanisms of groundwater resources in intensively anthropogenic activities. Such knowledge is critical for formulating strategies aimed at the effective conservation and management of groundwater resources, thereby contributing to the long-term ecological and socioeconomic sustainability of the region.

Graphical Abstract

This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of groundwater storage (GWS) in human-dominated areas of central China using integrated GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite data and the GLDAS Noah land surface model for the period 2002–2023. The GWS inversion results were validated against in situ groundwater monitoring data, demonstrating strong consistency and reliability (correlation: 0.70–0.76). The analysis reveals that groundwater storage in Henan Province showed a significant declining trend over the study period (-5.64 mm/a), Spatiotemporal analysis shows seasonal “U-shaped” dynamics, with June deficits (−48.04 mm) and October peaks (+36.41 mm). Further, the study identifies the primary natural and anthropogenic drivers influencing GWS changes at both the regional and grid scales. Precipitation and agricultural water use were found to be the dominant factors regionally, while grid-scale analysis highlights the positive effect of precipitation in the south and the negative impact of grain production in the northern plains. These findings provide a scientific basis for targeted groundwater management and sustainable development in areas with intensive human activities.