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<p>Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are sensitive ecosystems projected to experience significant warming due to global climate change, potentially disrupting their ecological functions. Accurate and low-uncertainty climate projections are critical for understanding monthly temperature trends in these regions. This study employs NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyze monthly mean air temperature changes in a TDF across historical (1960–2014), near-term (2015–2040), mid-term (2040–2060), and far-term (2080–2100) periods. We conduct this analysis under three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We identified statistically significant positive temperature trends for historical and projected periods (α = 0.05, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). SSP5-8.5 exhibited the steepest increase, with a slope of 85.8 × 10⁻⁶ °C/month across all terms (2015–2100). Monthly results show projected air temperature increases of 1.5 ̊ ± 0.9&#xa0;°C (5.1%), 2.7 ̊± 0.7&#xa0;°C (9.0%), and 3.2 ̊ ± 0.7&#xa0;°C (10.6%) under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, remaining below the global warming rates reported in the IPCC AR6 by end of 21st century. Seasonally, warming is projected to be more pronounced during the wet season than the dry season, with differences of 9.09%, 8.67%, and 12.22% for SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 “worst-case” scenario, warming rates are projected to reach critical thresholds for TDF productivity, posing risks to ecosystem stability; therefore, climate adaptation strategies are required to protect TDFs from escalating warming trends.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>Tropical dry forests (TDFs) play a crucial role in global climate regulation, yet their ecological functions are highly sensitive to rising temperatures. In this study, we utilized three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) from NASA’s GDDP-NEX-CMIP6 dataset for projecting air temperature extending to 2100 at a TDF in Costa Rica. The study applies Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for bias correction, ensuring that the downscaled climate projections align more accurately with observed historical temperature records. The analysis spans multiple future scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, offering insights into the expected warming trends from the near-term to the far-term future. The results reveal a significant warming trend, with the rate of temperature increase being scenario-dependent. The SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate that warming might reach critical thresholds at 3.9 ℃, potentially threatening TDF productivity and resilience. Additionally, seasonal variations show that the wet season is projected to experience a higher warming rate than the dry season, which may have profound implications for ecosystem functions and phenological cycles. The study highlights that while the projected warming in this TDF is lower than the global average reported in the IPCC AR6, the long-term effects could still pose risks to forest stability. This work provides a detailed assessment of future temperature trends, underscoring the need for proactive climate adaptation strategies to mitigate potential ecological disruptions.</p>

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Projected Air Temperature Dynamics in a Tropical Dry Forest Under NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月8日

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  • Mohammed Abdaki,
  • Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa,
  • Hendrik F. Hamann,
  • Ralf Ludwig

摘要

Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are sensitive ecosystems projected to experience significant warming due to global climate change, potentially disrupting their ecological functions. Accurate and low-uncertainty climate projections are critical for understanding monthly temperature trends in these regions. This study employs NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyze monthly mean air temperature changes in a TDF across historical (1960–2014), near-term (2015–2040), mid-term (2040–2060), and far-term (2080–2100) periods. We conduct this analysis under three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We identified statistically significant positive temperature trends for historical and projected periods (α = 0.05, p < 0.001). SSP5-8.5 exhibited the steepest increase, with a slope of 85.8 × 10⁻⁶ °C/month across all terms (2015–2100). Monthly results show projected air temperature increases of 1.5 ̊ ± 0.9 °C (5.1%), 2.7 ̊± 0.7 °C (9.0%), and 3.2 ̊ ± 0.7 °C (10.6%) under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, remaining below the global warming rates reported in the IPCC AR6 by end of 21st century. Seasonally, warming is projected to be more pronounced during the wet season than the dry season, with differences of 9.09%, 8.67%, and 12.22% for SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 “worst-case” scenario, warming rates are projected to reach critical thresholds for TDF productivity, posing risks to ecosystem stability; therefore, climate adaptation strategies are required to protect TDFs from escalating warming trends.

Graphical Abstract

Tropical dry forests (TDFs) play a crucial role in global climate regulation, yet their ecological functions are highly sensitive to rising temperatures. In this study, we utilized three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) from NASA’s GDDP-NEX-CMIP6 dataset for projecting air temperature extending to 2100 at a TDF in Costa Rica. The study applies Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for bias correction, ensuring that the downscaled climate projections align more accurately with observed historical temperature records. The analysis spans multiple future scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, offering insights into the expected warming trends from the near-term to the far-term future. The results reveal a significant warming trend, with the rate of temperature increase being scenario-dependent. The SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate that warming might reach critical thresholds at 3.9 ℃, potentially threatening TDF productivity and resilience. Additionally, seasonal variations show that the wet season is projected to experience a higher warming rate than the dry season, which may have profound implications for ecosystem functions and phenological cycles. The study highlights that while the projected warming in this TDF is lower than the global average reported in the IPCC AR6, the long-term effects could still pose risks to forest stability. This work provides a detailed assessment of future temperature trends, underscoring the need for proactive climate adaptation strategies to mitigate potential ecological disruptions.