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<p>Urban growth prediction have been widely studied, yet systematic integration of real-world urban planning scenarios for projecting future urban expansion and assessing landscape pattern dynamics remains a critical gap. This study investigates how Shanghai’s Urban Master Plan influences urban growth using the SLEUTH model by incorporating multiple scenarios formulated according to the Master Plan, and analyzes the impacts of urban growth on the spatiotemporal patterns of landscape. The findings are as follows: (1) Significant future urban land area growth was projected across most scenarios, except under the strictest land use protection scenario. During the period from 2016 to 2060, under various urban planning scenarios for Shanghai, the net increase in urban land area ranged between 4.6 and 1843.8&#xa0;km², with a corresponding growth rate ranging from 0.2 to 82.0%. The simulated urban land areas for different scenarios range from 4.6&#xa0;km² to 1,843.8&#xa0;km² over the period of 2016–2060, representing a growth rate of 0.2–82.0%. (2) The urban land area growth trajectory in mainland Shanghai conforms to a logistics curve in each scenario, demonstrating distinct stages of urbanization and their key characteristics, such as the speed and peak of urbanization, as well as their respective years of occurrence. (3) The urban land-use pattern tends to homogenize, characterized by increasing simplicity and uniformity. On the other hand, the farmland landscape pattern experiences continuous fragmentation and disaggregation due to the ongoing encroachment of urbanization. At the same time, as urban growth continues, the overall landscape becomes increasingly dominated and more aggregated by urban patches, while experiencing less fragmentation, complexity, and diversity, and more evenness. These findings can provide valuable insights for urban landscape planning and land use management in the cities worldwide.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract presents the influence of urban planning scenarios on future urban growth and landscape patterns in Shanghai, a megacity in China, using the SLEUTH model based on cellular automata. First, five land use protection scenarios (A, B, C, D, and E), defined by varying levels of farmland and greenspace protection, were developed according to the Shanghai Urban Master Plan. These scenarios were quantified using historical land use land cover data. Subsequently, the scenarios were integrated into the SLEUTH model to simulate annual land use land cover changes in Shanghai from 2016 to 2060. The projected urban land, greenspace, and farmland were analyzed to assess land use transformations across the scenarios. The results demonstrated that the intensity of land use protection significantly affects future land conversion patterns between 2016 and 2060. Historical and projected urban land use data were fitted to logistic functions to model urban growth trajectories under different scenarios from 2016 to 2060. This approach enables the identification of peak urbanization rates and their corresponding years, which are critical parameters for determining transition periods in the urbanization process. Furthermore, landscape pattern dynamics were quantified using the landscape metrics derived from both historical and projected land use land cover data. The findings reveal an initial increase in landscape complexity followed by gradual homogenization throughout the projected urbanization process in Shanghai. These results underscore the importance of considering urban planning scenarios when projecting urban growth and simulating urban expansion.</p>

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Urban Planning Scenarios Significantly Shape Future Urban Growth and Landscape Patterns in China’s Megacity, Shanghai

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月18日

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  • Yuhan Liu,
  • Caiyan Wu,
  • Jiong Wu,
  • Yangcen Zhang,
  • Xing Bi,
  • Meng Wang,
  • Chen Meng,
  • Junxiang Li,
  • Enrong Yan,
  • Conghe Song,
  • Maroš Finka,
  • Dagmar Haase,
  • Cristian Ioan Iojă,
  • Daniele La Rosa

摘要

Urban growth prediction have been widely studied, yet systematic integration of real-world urban planning scenarios for projecting future urban expansion and assessing landscape pattern dynamics remains a critical gap. This study investigates how Shanghai’s Urban Master Plan influences urban growth using the SLEUTH model by incorporating multiple scenarios formulated according to the Master Plan, and analyzes the impacts of urban growth on the spatiotemporal patterns of landscape. The findings are as follows: (1) Significant future urban land area growth was projected across most scenarios, except under the strictest land use protection scenario. During the period from 2016 to 2060, under various urban planning scenarios for Shanghai, the net increase in urban land area ranged between 4.6 and 1843.8 km², with a corresponding growth rate ranging from 0.2 to 82.0%. The simulated urban land areas for different scenarios range from 4.6 km² to 1,843.8 km² over the period of 2016–2060, representing a growth rate of 0.2–82.0%. (2) The urban land area growth trajectory in mainland Shanghai conforms to a logistics curve in each scenario, demonstrating distinct stages of urbanization and their key characteristics, such as the speed and peak of urbanization, as well as their respective years of occurrence. (3) The urban land-use pattern tends to homogenize, characterized by increasing simplicity and uniformity. On the other hand, the farmland landscape pattern experiences continuous fragmentation and disaggregation due to the ongoing encroachment of urbanization. At the same time, as urban growth continues, the overall landscape becomes increasingly dominated and more aggregated by urban patches, while experiencing less fragmentation, complexity, and diversity, and more evenness. These findings can provide valuable insights for urban landscape planning and land use management in the cities worldwide.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract presents the influence of urban planning scenarios on future urban growth and landscape patterns in Shanghai, a megacity in China, using the SLEUTH model based on cellular automata. First, five land use protection scenarios (A, B, C, D, and E), defined by varying levels of farmland and greenspace protection, were developed according to the Shanghai Urban Master Plan. These scenarios were quantified using historical land use land cover data. Subsequently, the scenarios were integrated into the SLEUTH model to simulate annual land use land cover changes in Shanghai from 2016 to 2060. The projected urban land, greenspace, and farmland were analyzed to assess land use transformations across the scenarios. The results demonstrated that the intensity of land use protection significantly affects future land conversion patterns between 2016 and 2060. Historical and projected urban land use data were fitted to logistic functions to model urban growth trajectories under different scenarios from 2016 to 2060. This approach enables the identification of peak urbanization rates and their corresponding years, which are critical parameters for determining transition periods in the urbanization process. Furthermore, landscape pattern dynamics were quantified using the landscape metrics derived from both historical and projected land use land cover data. The findings reveal an initial increase in landscape complexity followed by gradual homogenization throughout the projected urbanization process in Shanghai. These results underscore the importance of considering urban planning scenarios when projecting urban growth and simulating urban expansion.