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<p>Tropical monsoon regions, including Bangladesh, are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate extremes driven by global climate change, which poses significant risks to water resources, agriculture, and public health. This study explores future climate extremes using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble (MME). Key temperature and precipitation indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were analyzed under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the near (2015–2044), mid (2045–2074), and late (2075–2100) 21st century. Bias correction was performed using Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM), and results were validated against the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Significant changes in climate extremes were identified relative to the baseline period (1985–2014) by using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Projections indicate substantial increases in temperature extremes, with maximum temperature (TXx) and minimum temperature (TNn) rising by 5.12°C and 5.49°C, respectively, under SSP5-8.5 by the late 21st century. Precipitation extremes, including one-day maximum rainfall (RX1day) and five-day cumulative rainfall (RX5day), are projected to increase by 94.03 mm and 103.04 mm, respectively, amplifying flood risks in northeastern and coastal regions of the country. Concurrently, the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is expected to decline, whereas heat stress indicators, such as warm spell duration (WSDI), are projected to increase substantially. These findings underscore the intensification of climate risks in tropical monsoon regions. This study offers critical insights into regional climate dynamics, highlighting the need for targeted adaptation strategies, including resilient infrastructure, sustainable water management, and agricultural adaptation, while calling for future research on socio-economic and compound climate impacts.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This study utilizes projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble (MME) to assess future climate extremes in Bangladesh. By analyzing temperature and precipitation-based indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), this study reveals a consistent intensification of climate extremes throughout the 21st century. Key indicators, such as the annual maximum temperature (TXx) and minimum temperature (TNn), show substantial increases under high-emission scenarios, such as SSP5-8.5, indicating a greater likelihood of prolonged heatwaves and elevated nighttime temperatures. Precipitation extremes, including one-day maximum rainfall (RX1day) and five-day cumulative rainfall (RX5day), are projected to rise significantly, amplifying flood risks, particularly in the northeastern and coastal regions of Bangladesh. Additionally, a notable decline in the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) suggests a reduction in day-night temperature variability, which could have implications for crop growth, human health, and energy demand. These projected changes highlight the pressing concerns related to heat stress, urban and rural infrastructure resilience, and water resource management in the region. The findings call for immediate and targeted adaptation strategies, including climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable water management practices, and enhanced early warning systems to minimize future socio-economic and environmental risks in this highly vulnerable region.</p>

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Future Climate Extremes in Bangladesh: Insights from a Multi-Model Ensemble of CMIP6 Simulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月7日

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  • Fuad Bin Nazrul,
  • Md. Rezaul Karim,
  • Willingthon Pavan,
  • Mohammad Kamruzzaman

摘要

Tropical monsoon regions, including Bangladesh, are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate extremes driven by global climate change, which poses significant risks to water resources, agriculture, and public health. This study explores future climate extremes using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble (MME). Key temperature and precipitation indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were analyzed under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the near (2015–2044), mid (2045–2074), and late (2075–2100) 21st century. Bias correction was performed using Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM), and results were validated against the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Significant changes in climate extremes were identified relative to the baseline period (1985–2014) by using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Projections indicate substantial increases in temperature extremes, with maximum temperature (TXx) and minimum temperature (TNn) rising by 5.12°C and 5.49°C, respectively, under SSP5-8.5 by the late 21st century. Precipitation extremes, including one-day maximum rainfall (RX1day) and five-day cumulative rainfall (RX5day), are projected to increase by 94.03 mm and 103.04 mm, respectively, amplifying flood risks in northeastern and coastal regions of the country. Concurrently, the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is expected to decline, whereas heat stress indicators, such as warm spell duration (WSDI), are projected to increase substantially. These findings underscore the intensification of climate risks in tropical monsoon regions. This study offers critical insights into regional climate dynamics, highlighting the need for targeted adaptation strategies, including resilient infrastructure, sustainable water management, and agricultural adaptation, while calling for future research on socio-economic and compound climate impacts.

Graphical Abstract

This study utilizes projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble (MME) to assess future climate extremes in Bangladesh. By analyzing temperature and precipitation-based indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), this study reveals a consistent intensification of climate extremes throughout the 21st century. Key indicators, such as the annual maximum temperature (TXx) and minimum temperature (TNn), show substantial increases under high-emission scenarios, such as SSP5-8.5, indicating a greater likelihood of prolonged heatwaves and elevated nighttime temperatures. Precipitation extremes, including one-day maximum rainfall (RX1day) and five-day cumulative rainfall (RX5day), are projected to rise significantly, amplifying flood risks, particularly in the northeastern and coastal regions of Bangladesh. Additionally, a notable decline in the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) suggests a reduction in day-night temperature variability, which could have implications for crop growth, human health, and energy demand. These projected changes highlight the pressing concerns related to heat stress, urban and rural infrastructure resilience, and water resource management in the region. The findings call for immediate and targeted adaptation strategies, including climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable water management practices, and enhanced early warning systems to minimize future socio-economic and environmental risks in this highly vulnerable region.