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<p>East Africa, heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture, faces significant challenges due to extreme weather events. This study assessed the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating historical precipitation patterns based on Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data and their projections for future precipitation patterns in the region. This study evaluated the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating historical and future precipitation patterns in the region. This study compares model simulations to CRU observations using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and trend analysis. The findings indicate that while the models reasonably represent historical precipitation, future projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest a shift towards wetter conditions, accompanied by precipitation extremes and distribution changes. Based on the Historical Ensemble Mean (HEM) derived SPI, normal precipitation years accounted for approximately 60–74% and 60–78% of the historical period (1965–2014) during March-May (MAM) and September-December (SOND), respectively. Projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest that normal precipitation will likely occur for 66–78% and 58–78% of the projection period (2051–2100) during MAM and SOND, respectively. This shift, especially during March-May, underscores the necessity for adaptive water resource management strategies. Despite a potential persistence of the spatial dipole pattern in precipitation, the projected increase in normal precipitation events necessitates proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events and ensure food security in this vulnerable region.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract illustrates projected precipitation trends relative to historical data from 1965 to 2014, focusing on MAM and SOND. It compares historical precipitation estimates from CRU and HEM datasets against future projections for 2051 to 2100 using two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The upper left panel presents Sen’s slope analysis from 1965 to 2014, indicating decreasing trends in precipitation over the whole East Africa (EA), Southern East Africa (SEA), and Northern East Africa (NEA), during specific seasons. In contrast, the upper right panel shows projected future trends revealing a shift towards wetter conditions, with significant increases in precipitation for both MAM and SOND seasons across all regions under the SSP scenarios. The lower panels depict seasonal mean precipitation for historical and projected periods, highlighting the anticipated rise in average precipitation levels. These findings suggest heightened hydrological variability and underscore the importance of effective water resource management and climate adaptation strategies in the respective EA regions to address future challenges. </p>

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Analyzing Historical and Projected Precipitation Variability and Trends in Eastern Africa: Insights from CRU and CMIP6 Simulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月2日

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  • Abera Debebe Assamnew,
  • Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu

摘要

East Africa, heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture, faces significant challenges due to extreme weather events. This study assessed the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating historical precipitation patterns based on Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data and their projections for future precipitation patterns in the region. This study evaluated the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating historical and future precipitation patterns in the region. This study compares model simulations to CRU observations using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and trend analysis. The findings indicate that while the models reasonably represent historical precipitation, future projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest a shift towards wetter conditions, accompanied by precipitation extremes and distribution changes. Based on the Historical Ensemble Mean (HEM) derived SPI, normal precipitation years accounted for approximately 60–74% and 60–78% of the historical period (1965–2014) during March-May (MAM) and September-December (SOND), respectively. Projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest that normal precipitation will likely occur for 66–78% and 58–78% of the projection period (2051–2100) during MAM and SOND, respectively. This shift, especially during March-May, underscores the necessity for adaptive water resource management strategies. Despite a potential persistence of the spatial dipole pattern in precipitation, the projected increase in normal precipitation events necessitates proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events and ensure food security in this vulnerable region.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract illustrates projected precipitation trends relative to historical data from 1965 to 2014, focusing on MAM and SOND. It compares historical precipitation estimates from CRU and HEM datasets against future projections for 2051 to 2100 using two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The upper left panel presents Sen’s slope analysis from 1965 to 2014, indicating decreasing trends in precipitation over the whole East Africa (EA), Southern East Africa (SEA), and Northern East Africa (NEA), during specific seasons. In contrast, the upper right panel shows projected future trends revealing a shift towards wetter conditions, with significant increases in precipitation for both MAM and SOND seasons across all regions under the SSP scenarios. The lower panels depict seasonal mean precipitation for historical and projected periods, highlighting the anticipated rise in average precipitation levels. These findings suggest heightened hydrological variability and underscore the importance of effective water resource management and climate adaptation strategies in the respective EA regions to address future challenges.