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<p>Nigeria is increasingly experiencing rising temperatures and heat extremes, heightening its vulnerability to thermal stress. This study evaluates the diurnal pattern of heat stress across Nigeria from 1950 to 2023 using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a comprehensive measure of outdoor thermal comfort. The analysis incorporates the categorization of thermal stress, the number of days and hours of heat stress, consecutive heatwave events, and long-term trend analysis to provide a holistic understanding of heat stress variations. Five thermal stress categories were examined: no thermal stress, moderate thermal stress, strong thermal stress, severe thermal stress, and extreme thermal stress. Findings indicate a substantial increase in heat stress intensity and duration across different regions. ‘No thermal stress’ and ‘moderate thermal stress’ were recorded for up to 365 days annually, while strong thermal stress occurred for up to 350 days in 1-hour durations across all regions. Severe thermal stress, most pronounced in northern and central regions, reached 340 days annually, while extreme thermal stress persisted for up to 152 days in the north. For 6-hour durations, severe and extreme thermal stress dominated the northern region, while no extreme stress was recorded for 12-hour durations. Consecutive heatwave events lasting 3 and 5 days, with 4–10 extreme thermal stress occurrences, were most prevalent in northern and central Nigeria. Trend analysis revealed a significant increase of 0.59 days per decade in heat stress days in the central highlands, with variations ranging from − 1.42 to + 0.31 days per decade across northern and southern regions. These results emphasize the growing threat of heat stress in Nigeria, particularly in urban and rural areas with poor thermal adaptation. Urgent mitigation strategies, including improved housing, heat-resilient urban planning, and occupational safety measures, are necessary to reduce the health and productivity risks associated with extreme heat stress.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>The graphical abstract presents a historical analysis of heat stress in Nigeria from 1950 to 2023 using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). This study adopts a holistic framework integrating UTCI-based indices to examine spatiotemporal thermal stress trends, heatwave distribution, and extreme heat events using hourly meteorological data (1950–2023) from the ERA5-Land and ERA5-Single Level datasets. It conducts detailed climatic trend analyses and computes heat stress severity across Nigeria. Advanced tools such as R, Python, and QGIS are employed to visualize spatial and temporal patterns of thermal stress and extreme heat events. The UTCI results analysis incorporates the categorization of thermal stress, the number of days and hours of heat stress, consecutive heatwave events, and long-term trend analysis. Findings highlights regions with frequent and severe heat stress, revealing a significant increasing trend of 0.59 heat stress days per decade, with 4–10 extreme heatwave events occurring annually. These insights provide a valuable foundation for climate adaptation strategies and sustainable heat stress mitigation efforts in Nigeria.</p>

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The Growing Threat of Heat Stress in Nigeria: A Historical Analysis Using Universal Thermal Climate Index

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月25日

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  • Mohammed Abdu Nasara,
  • Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad,
  • Mohd Ridza Mohd Haniffah,
  • Amyrhul Abu Bakar,
  • Dauda Pius Awhari,
  • Labib Sharrar,
  • Shamsuddin Shahid

摘要

Nigeria is increasingly experiencing rising temperatures and heat extremes, heightening its vulnerability to thermal stress. This study evaluates the diurnal pattern of heat stress across Nigeria from 1950 to 2023 using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a comprehensive measure of outdoor thermal comfort. The analysis incorporates the categorization of thermal stress, the number of days and hours of heat stress, consecutive heatwave events, and long-term trend analysis to provide a holistic understanding of heat stress variations. Five thermal stress categories were examined: no thermal stress, moderate thermal stress, strong thermal stress, severe thermal stress, and extreme thermal stress. Findings indicate a substantial increase in heat stress intensity and duration across different regions. ‘No thermal stress’ and ‘moderate thermal stress’ were recorded for up to 365 days annually, while strong thermal stress occurred for up to 350 days in 1-hour durations across all regions. Severe thermal stress, most pronounced in northern and central regions, reached 340 days annually, while extreme thermal stress persisted for up to 152 days in the north. For 6-hour durations, severe and extreme thermal stress dominated the northern region, while no extreme stress was recorded for 12-hour durations. Consecutive heatwave events lasting 3 and 5 days, with 4–10 extreme thermal stress occurrences, were most prevalent in northern and central Nigeria. Trend analysis revealed a significant increase of 0.59 days per decade in heat stress days in the central highlands, with variations ranging from − 1.42 to + 0.31 days per decade across northern and southern regions. These results emphasize the growing threat of heat stress in Nigeria, particularly in urban and rural areas with poor thermal adaptation. Urgent mitigation strategies, including improved housing, heat-resilient urban planning, and occupational safety measures, are necessary to reduce the health and productivity risks associated with extreme heat stress.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract presents a historical analysis of heat stress in Nigeria from 1950 to 2023 using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). This study adopts a holistic framework integrating UTCI-based indices to examine spatiotemporal thermal stress trends, heatwave distribution, and extreme heat events using hourly meteorological data (1950–2023) from the ERA5-Land and ERA5-Single Level datasets. It conducts detailed climatic trend analyses and computes heat stress severity across Nigeria. Advanced tools such as R, Python, and QGIS are employed to visualize spatial and temporal patterns of thermal stress and extreme heat events. The UTCI results analysis incorporates the categorization of thermal stress, the number of days and hours of heat stress, consecutive heatwave events, and long-term trend analysis. Findings highlights regions with frequent and severe heat stress, revealing a significant increasing trend of 0.59 heat stress days per decade, with 4–10 extreme heatwave events occurring annually. These insights provide a valuable foundation for climate adaptation strategies and sustainable heat stress mitigation efforts in Nigeria.