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<p>This study evaluates the performance of 21 climate models from the NASANEX-GDDP dataset in simulating temperature patterns and precipitation distribution over West Africa. Utilizing high-resolution (25&#xa0;km) reanalysis data from ERA5 as a benchmark, the models’ accuracy in replicating annual minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as precipitation, is assessed by Taylor diagrams which illustrates the correlation, centered root mean square error (CRMSE), and standard deviation of the models compared to observed data. Most models exhibit strong correlation values (above 0.8) for minimum and maximum temperatures, with exceptions like CMCC-CM2-SR5 and TaiESM1 showing lower correlation and higher CRMSE. The ensemble mean of the models generally captures the spatial patterns of observed data, although slight overestimation are noted, particularly in the maximum temperature. Precipitation trends are examined across three climatic zones (Guinea Coast, Savannah, and Sahel) based on historical observations (1981–2014) and future projections (2020–2100) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). The models project an increase in both temperature and precipitation, with SSP585 indicating more extreme changes compared to SSP245. This research enhances understanding of West African climate dynamics, supporting regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. By evaluating high-resolution models, it emphasizes the role of robust climate projections in guiding sustainable development and building resilience to climate change challenges.</p>

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Exploring Added Value of NASA NEX-GDDP High Resolution Model in Simulating West Africa Present and Future Climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月22日

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  • Ayomide Victor Arowolo,
  • Michael Temitayo Odunmorayo,
  • Isiaq Adebayo Okeyode,
  • Ibraheem Ayomide Raji,
  • Bayonle Ibukun,
  • Ibrahim Adedapo Tella

摘要

This study evaluates the performance of 21 climate models from the NASANEX-GDDP dataset in simulating temperature patterns and precipitation distribution over West Africa. Utilizing high-resolution (25 km) reanalysis data from ERA5 as a benchmark, the models’ accuracy in replicating annual minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as precipitation, is assessed by Taylor diagrams which illustrates the correlation, centered root mean square error (CRMSE), and standard deviation of the models compared to observed data. Most models exhibit strong correlation values (above 0.8) for minimum and maximum temperatures, with exceptions like CMCC-CM2-SR5 and TaiESM1 showing lower correlation and higher CRMSE. The ensemble mean of the models generally captures the spatial patterns of observed data, although slight overestimation are noted, particularly in the maximum temperature. Precipitation trends are examined across three climatic zones (Guinea Coast, Savannah, and Sahel) based on historical observations (1981–2014) and future projections (2020–2100) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). The models project an increase in both temperature and precipitation, with SSP585 indicating more extreme changes compared to SSP245. This research enhances understanding of West African climate dynamics, supporting regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. By evaluating high-resolution models, it emphasizes the role of robust climate projections in guiding sustainable development and building resilience to climate change challenges.