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<p>Understanding the impact of rapid urbanization on land use and environmental conditions is crucial for developing effective urban planning strategies, particularly in rapidly growing cities like Multan, Pakistan. This study investigates the shifts in land use and land cover (LULC) and their contributions to the intensification of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effects and rising thermal stress. The Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) is used to assess these changes quantitatively. A multi-temporal analysis of Landsat satellite imagery and GIS-based techniques examines LULC trends from 1994 to 2024. The findings reveal a 130.54% increase in urban areas, with built-up land expanding from 13,412.73 hectares (7%) in 1994 to 30,921.14 hectares (16%) in 2024, alongside a significant decline in agricultural land. This urban expansion has contributed to a rise in Land Surface Temperature (LST), with the mean LST increasing by approximately 3.5°Cover the study period. The SUHI intensity map demonstrates an escalation in surface temperature variations from 3.9°C in 1994 to 5.8°C in 2024. UTFVI analysis shows a progressive increase in thermal stress, with areas classified as ‘Bad’ and ‘Worse’ thermal conditions expanding over time. By 2024, large sections of the city exhibit ‘Worst’ thermal stress, especially in rapidly urbanizing zones. This study highlights the deteriorating ecological and thermal conditions in urban growth areas, contrasting with rural regions, and provides crucial insights for urban planners and policymakers working to mitigate the SUHI effect and build urban resilience.s</p>

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From Green to Grey: Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Land Surface Temperature and Thermal Comfort in Multan City

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月14日

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  • Zainab Tahir,
  • Muhammad Haseeb,
  • Syed Amer Mahmood,
  • Najmaldin Ezaldin Hassan,
  • Muhammad Mubashar Dogar,
  • Syed Zohaib Hassan

摘要

Understanding the impact of rapid urbanization on land use and environmental conditions is crucial for developing effective urban planning strategies, particularly in rapidly growing cities like Multan, Pakistan. This study investigates the shifts in land use and land cover (LULC) and their contributions to the intensification of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effects and rising thermal stress. The Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) is used to assess these changes quantitatively. A multi-temporal analysis of Landsat satellite imagery and GIS-based techniques examines LULC trends from 1994 to 2024. The findings reveal a 130.54% increase in urban areas, with built-up land expanding from 13,412.73 hectares (7%) in 1994 to 30,921.14 hectares (16%) in 2024, alongside a significant decline in agricultural land. This urban expansion has contributed to a rise in Land Surface Temperature (LST), with the mean LST increasing by approximately 3.5°Cover the study period. The SUHI intensity map demonstrates an escalation in surface temperature variations from 3.9°C in 1994 to 5.8°C in 2024. UTFVI analysis shows a progressive increase in thermal stress, with areas classified as ‘Bad’ and ‘Worse’ thermal conditions expanding over time. By 2024, large sections of the city exhibit ‘Worst’ thermal stress, especially in rapidly urbanizing zones. This study highlights the deteriorating ecological and thermal conditions in urban growth areas, contrasting with rural regions, and provides crucial insights for urban planners and policymakers working to mitigate the SUHI effect and build urban resilience.s