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<p>Climate change, driven by shifts in precipitation regimes and modifications in land cover, engenders accelerated soil loss over extended periods. The progressive accumulation of sediment within a reservoir concomitantly diminishes its water-retention capacity. Construction of the Tarbela dam began in 1968 and was commissioned in mid-1970. Since then Tarbela Reservoir has experienced a gradual reduction in storage capacity, with a pronounced decline emerging from the 1990s onward. Utilizing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), the study quantified the impacts of climatic variations and land cover changes on soil erosion over the past three decades, while sediment volume and storage capacity trends were examined from 1994 to 2023. A pivotal component of this research was the development of a Python-based tool to estimate annual soil loss and analyze sediment dynamics through robust calculations of sediment yield, mass, and volume. Findings indicate that the reservoir's gross capacity fell from 14.344 BCM to 12.203 BCM by 2003, further declining to 9.19 BCM in 2013 and 5.103 BCM by 2023, amounting to an estimated 64.4% reduction.</p>

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Developing a RUSLE-Based Tool for Analyzing Climate Induced Soil Erosion and Reservoir Sedimentation in the Tarbela Region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月23日

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  • Muhammad Arif Goheer,
  • Sher Shah Hassan,
  • Syeda Rosheen Raza Kazmi,
  • Muhammad Taimoor Ashfaq Malik,
  • Syed Zee Ali Shan

摘要

Climate change, driven by shifts in precipitation regimes and modifications in land cover, engenders accelerated soil loss over extended periods. The progressive accumulation of sediment within a reservoir concomitantly diminishes its water-retention capacity. Construction of the Tarbela dam began in 1968 and was commissioned in mid-1970. Since then Tarbela Reservoir has experienced a gradual reduction in storage capacity, with a pronounced decline emerging from the 1990s onward. Utilizing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), the study quantified the impacts of climatic variations and land cover changes on soil erosion over the past three decades, while sediment volume and storage capacity trends were examined from 1994 to 2023. A pivotal component of this research was the development of a Python-based tool to estimate annual soil loss and analyze sediment dynamics through robust calculations of sediment yield, mass, and volume. Findings indicate that the reservoir's gross capacity fell from 14.344 BCM to 12.203 BCM by 2003, further declining to 9.19 BCM in 2013 and 5.103 BCM by 2023, amounting to an estimated 64.4% reduction.