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<p>The COVID-19 lockdown and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine conflict deeply disrupted the economy of Bangladesh, especially agriculture. This study employed an interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine how multiple policy shocks affect wholesale and retail prices, as well as price margins of major food commodities in Bangladesh. Using weekly price data, we analyzed the effects of lockdowns in 2020 and 2021, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Results showed heterogeneous price margin effects across commodities and intervention periods. While domestically produced items like rice, eggs, onions and potatoes remained relatively stable during the pandemic and the early stages of war, import-dependent commodities—including flour, maize, lentils (mosur) and edible oil—experienced significant price jumps. During lockdown, the increases in wholesale prices were well transmitted to the retail level. The coarse rice retail price rose by 49.9%, medium-grain by 38.8%, and fine-grain by 24.3%. Flour and maize saw hikes of 27.6% and 22.0%. Essential items like mosur, onion, edible oil, egg and potato rose up to 52.2%. In contrast, the Russia-Ukraine war had limited effects on self-sufficient goods (e.g., rice, onion, egg), but import-dependent items were hit hard: flour rose 36.8%, maize 25.5%, mosur 17.1%, and edible oil 31.2%. These trends underscore how domestic production shapes vulnerability to global shocks. In response, the Government of Bangladesh implemented welfare and incentive programs to mitigate the shocks. Overall, the 2021 lockdown was managed more efficiently than in 2020, allowing greater access to essential goods and services, transportation and other conveniences. Based on these insights, we recommend policies to strengthen supply chain resilience against future global crises. Furthermore, policies to enhance the supply chain responsiveness and resilience to future pandemics, global crisis and natural disasters are suggested, given the lessons learned from the COVID-19 lockdown and Russia-Ukraine war.</p>

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Global shocks and food price dynamics in Bangladesh: application of interrupted time series analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman,
  • Mohammad Ariful Islam

摘要

The COVID-19 lockdown and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine conflict deeply disrupted the economy of Bangladesh, especially agriculture. This study employed an interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine how multiple policy shocks affect wholesale and retail prices, as well as price margins of major food commodities in Bangladesh. Using weekly price data, we analyzed the effects of lockdowns in 2020 and 2021, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Results showed heterogeneous price margin effects across commodities and intervention periods. While domestically produced items like rice, eggs, onions and potatoes remained relatively stable during the pandemic and the early stages of war, import-dependent commodities—including flour, maize, lentils (mosur) and edible oil—experienced significant price jumps. During lockdown, the increases in wholesale prices were well transmitted to the retail level. The coarse rice retail price rose by 49.9%, medium-grain by 38.8%, and fine-grain by 24.3%. Flour and maize saw hikes of 27.6% and 22.0%. Essential items like mosur, onion, edible oil, egg and potato rose up to 52.2%. In contrast, the Russia-Ukraine war had limited effects on self-sufficient goods (e.g., rice, onion, egg), but import-dependent items were hit hard: flour rose 36.8%, maize 25.5%, mosur 17.1%, and edible oil 31.2%. These trends underscore how domestic production shapes vulnerability to global shocks. In response, the Government of Bangladesh implemented welfare and incentive programs to mitigate the shocks. Overall, the 2021 lockdown was managed more efficiently than in 2020, allowing greater access to essential goods and services, transportation and other conveniences. Based on these insights, we recommend policies to strengthen supply chain resilience against future global crises. Furthermore, policies to enhance the supply chain responsiveness and resilience to future pandemics, global crisis and natural disasters are suggested, given the lessons learned from the COVID-19 lockdown and Russia-Ukraine war.